815
FXUS62 KTAE 020518
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
118 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED
ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME OF THIS HAS CAUSED LOCALIZED FLOODING SO FAR TODAY WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. MORE SCATTERED STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THIS ACTIVITY, AND GIVEN THE TROPICAL
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WITH PWATS OF 2.2-2.5 INCHES, THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES.
ADDITIONALLY, WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE IF A WESTWARD MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACT WITH THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO THE WET.
THIS COULD CAUSE SCATTERED STORMS TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST THAT COULD MOVE BACK TO THE EAST INTO THIS
EVENING. IF IT DOES, IT SHOULD FADE AFTER SUNSET GIVEN THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND A MORE WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT THE
FARTHER EAST ONE GOES.
OVERNIGHT, WE'LL HAVE A BIT OF A LULL UNTIL LATE NIGHT WHEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES CLOSER. IT'LL BE RATHER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVING OFF THE GULF WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN EMBEDDED,
PUSHING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THUS, THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. GIVEN THAT SOME AREAS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN
TODAY, MORE OF THE AREA MAY BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING ON
SUNDAY.
WE'LL REPEAT THE PATTERN GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
THOUGH EVERYTHING BEGINS TO MOVE FARTHER TO THE EAST AND OUR
FORCING BEGINS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. SO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE THEN FROM A RAIN-RATE PERSPECTIVE, BUT WE
COULD BE QUITE SATURATED BY THAT POINT IN THE EASTERN BIG BEND.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A LITTLE OF BIT OF LINGERING INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN FROM THIS
WEEKEND'S SYSTEM ON TUESDAY, BUT WE SHOULD BE RETURNING TO A
NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN BY MID TO LATE WEEK. OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO RETURN BACK TO SUMMERTIME AVERAGES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE REGION HAS BEEN IN A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEN, DEVELOPMENT
IS FORECAST IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EACH
SITE HAS AN ARRAY OF SHRA AND TSRA WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
ACCOMPANYING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH TIMING BASED ON MOST RECENT
SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS ONGOING
IFR/MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA INCLUDING ABY AND VLD WHICH WILL
CONTINUE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING THEN SLOWLY
WIND DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. SOME GUSTY WINDS,
WATERSPOUTS, AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT TO ADVISORY LEVEL OVER THE OPEN WATERS WEST OF
APALACHICOLA BEFORE SUBSIDING SUNDAY NIGHT. BORDERLINE CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ST. ANDREWS BAY AND APALACHEE BAY
DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, THEN BECOME MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE IN THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-20 MPH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, THEN
LESSENING TO 5-10 MPH BY TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, FLORIDA BIG BEND, AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA RECEIVING 3-6
INCHES OF RAIN. THIS HAS PRIMED THE GROUND FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL TO COME IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA COUNTIES
WITH POTENTIALLY THE GREATEST RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE
EASTERN BIG BEND. GIVEN THIS, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED
NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE CALHOUN COUNTY FL TO MADISON COUNTY. MOST
LIKELY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN
THE WATCH AREA, BUT LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 5-8 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA, THE FLOOD THREAT IS MORE
LOCALIZED, BUT STILL A FEW PLACE COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME UNDER A SLOW MOVING STORM OR TWO.
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE RIVERS IN THE COASTAL BIG BEND FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF RISES. THIS INCLUDES RIVERS SUCH AS THE SOPCHOPPY, ST.
MARKS, ECONFINA, FENHOLLOWAY, AND STEINHATCHEE. HOWEVER, MOST OF
OUR LARGER RIVER SYSTEMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 73 88 73 90 / 60 80 10 70
PANAMA CITY 76 89 77 90 / 70 30 20 30
DOTHAN 72 90 72 91 / 50 40 10 40
ALBANY 72 89 72 91 / 50 60 20 30
VALDOSTA 72 89 72 91 / 70 90 20 40
CROSS CITY 73 87 73 90 / 80 90 50 60
APALACHICOLA 77 86 77 88 / 70 80 30 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ012>019-027>029-034-
112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ751-752-
770-772.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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