469
FXUS62 KTAE 021333
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
933 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED
ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ARE
MOVING EAST. HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION
REMAIN CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION,
STRENGTHENING THE GRADIENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. TODAY'S RAIN COULD BE MORE THAN YESTERDAY
FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. STORMS TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SIMILARLY BY BEGINNING OVER OUR WESTERN GULF WATERS AND
ALONG THE COAST, GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON; THEN, SPREADING EASTWARD TO THE BIG BEND REGION.
OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA, ABOUT 0.5-2" OF RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. 2-4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
FLOOD WATCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5-8 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WPC HAS OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT (LEVEL
2 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY, WITH OUR GA AND AL
COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK. MORE INFO IN THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. EXPECT IT TO BE MUGGY AS WELL WITH
ALL THE RAIN.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30-60 PERCENT FOR THE DAY, AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH AND DRIFTS FURTHER EAST. THEN FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK, WE DRY OUT TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITH 30-40% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN TO THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND
100-105 DEGREES FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ALSO BE IN THE LOW- MID 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GULF AND INLAND WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. START THE TAFS
WITH SHRA AND VCTS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HRRR HAS A MAJORITY
OF THE CONVECTION GOING THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEEMS TO BE ANOTHER LULL THIS EVENING
BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ECP/TLH/VLD WHILE DRIER
AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO DHN/ABY. EXPECT BOUTS OF MVFR CIG/VSBYS TO
ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS WHILE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST; GUSTY IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THREATS
INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS, ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. DURING THE DAY TODAY, ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KTS, WITH SEAS OF 3-6 FEET. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SCEC
CONDITIONS. GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES RETURN BY TUESDAY WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT LATER IN THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS THROUGH MONDAY WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-20 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN LESSENING TO
5- 10 MPH BY TUESDAY.
MODERATE TO HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND
DISTRICTS OF THE FL BIG BEND AND ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN
GEORGIA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
4000- 6000 FEET. POPS FOR TUESDAY RANGE FROM 30-60 PERCENT AS
THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS
WEEKEND'S SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FL BIG BEND REGION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED 3-6
INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5-8 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE
FL BIG BEND. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRETY
OF THE FL BIG BEND AS SEVERAL INCHES HAVE FALLEN WITH MORE
EXPECTED FOR TODAY. AN EXPANSION INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA MAY BE
NEEDED TODAY IF A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. WPC HAS
OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TODAY, WITH OUR GA AND AL COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL
1 OF 4) RISK. THE EXTREME SE BIG BEND WAS MENTIONED IN WPC'S
DISCUSSION THAT THERE IS A MEDIUM (30- 50%) CHANCE OF AN
ADDITIONAL 5" (THROUGH MONDAY) DUE TO BACKBUILDING CELLS AND HIGH
RAIN RATES.
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE RIVERS IN THE COASTAL BIG BEND FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF RISES. THIS INCLUDES RIVERS SUCH AS THE SOPCHOPPY,
ST. MARKS, ECONFINA, FENHOLLOWAY, AND STEINHATCHEE. HOWEVER, MOST
OF OUR LARGER RIVER SYSTEMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. SPOTTERS SHOULD SAFELY REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND/OR DAMAGE BY CALLING THE
OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 86 74 89 73 / 90 60 70 10
PANAMA CITY 87 77 89 77 / 90 70 30 10
DOTHAN 89 72 90 72 / 90 50 20 10
ALBANY 89 73 90 72 / 90 50 50 10
VALDOSTA 90 73 89 72 / 90 70 80 30
CROSS CITY 86 74 88 73 / 90 80 100 70
APALACHICOLA 86 77 87 77 / 90 70 80 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ012>019-027>029-034-
112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page