443
FXUS62 KTAE 030126
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
926 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW UPDATE, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 912 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED
ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF BAY COUNTY
AROUND BEAR CREEK UNTIL 1145PM CDT, WHICH SAW A RAPID RISE
HOVERING AROUND MINOR FLOOD STAGE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FROM
VERY HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 912 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
ADJUSTED TONIGHT'S RAIN CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND
MODEL TRENDS. A TEMPORARY CONVECTIVE LULL IS ON TAP FOR US OUTSIDE
PARTS OF OUR MARINE ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE 23Z HRRR
SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 6Z WITH A STEADY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN &
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW TO NE TOWARDS SUNRISE. PRIMARY FORCING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LARGE-SCALE LIFT BY A DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING FURTHER INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NW AMIDST VERY MOIST, DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST IN BAY COUNTY AND THE SE FL BIG
BEND WHERE HEAVY RAIN WAS OBSERVED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST US WILL CONTINUE TO
HELP INITIATE SHOWERS AND STORMS SO FAR TODAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
HAS MAINLY BEEN CONFINED TO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS THE
SHORTWAVES MOVES EASTWARD.
PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2.2 TO 2.4 INCHES, KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE
RATHER FAVORABLE FOR HIGH RAIN RATES. IF TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURS, THEN FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO MONDAY
EVENING. IN THE WATCH AREA, AN ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 4-6 INCHES
POSSIBLE. EVEN OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS, BUT THE LESS WIDESPREAD NATURE PRECLUDES
ANY EXPANSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH.
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO PINCH OFF ON THE SOUTHERN END INTO A
CUTOFF LOW. THE DRIER AIR WILL SURGE INTO OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON, LOWERING THE RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER, THERE MAY STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE SURGING IN BIG BEND TO KEEP THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THREAT CONTINUING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE CUT OFF LOW BEINGS TO WEAKEN HEADING INTO MID WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ON TUESDAY, BUT THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE
DECREASING. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOWER HEADING INTO
MID WEEK. OUR RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE LATER IN THE WEEK
MORE TOWARD A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL, WARMING BACK TO THE LOW
TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102-107.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 703 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIKELY A LULL COMING LATER
THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND GETS
UNDERWAY IN THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF TOMORROW'S CONVECTION, SO KEPT IT OUT OF KDHN AND KABY
FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. SOME STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, WATERSPOUTS, HEAVY
RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE WEST OF APALACHICOLA TONIGHT, AND LINGER NEAR 20
KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING EAST OF APALACHICOLA. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL SUBSIDE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE BY MID WEEK,
THEN TURN EASTERLY LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS WILL RESPOND BY
DECREASING FROM 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET LATER IN
THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
HIGH CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 MPH ON MONDAY, DECREASING
TO 5-10 MPH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF POCKETS OF HIGH
DISPERSIONS MONDAY IN THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND TUESDAY IN
THE EASTERN BIG BEND, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 912 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
EVENING UPDATE: AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
BAY COUNTY AROUND BEAR CREEK UNTIL 1145PM CDT, WHICH SAW A RAPID
RISE HOVERING AROUND MINOR FLOOD STAGE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FROM
VERY HEAVY RAIN. EVENING OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE CREEK HAS
SINCE CRESTED AROUND ITS 24-FT FLOOD THRESHOLD AND IS ON A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND. OUT OF CAUTION, THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME ANOTHER FEW HRS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN FELL IN
PARTS OF THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND, PARTICULARLY EASTERN TAYLOR,
SOUTHERN MADISON, AND NORTHERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE PRIMED FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN.
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PLACES IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND BIG BEND HAVE RECEIVED 5 TO 9 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO THANKS TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND SOME TRAINING/SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND, BUT LOCALIZED
ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE. THIS COULD
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED TO MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN COULD
AFFECT THE EASTERN BIG BEND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ST. MARKS RIVER HAS RISEN IN ACTION STAGE AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THERE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. BEAR CREEK IN BAY COUNTY HAS ALSO
RISEN DUE TO EARLIER FLASH FLOODING TODAY AND SHOULD CREST NEAR
MINOR FLOOD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WE'LL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OTHER COASTAL RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER THE NEXT DAY FOR ANY
QUICK RISES.
BEYOND MONDAY, THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DECREASE, AND OUR
FLOOD CONCERNS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE BEYOND MONDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 73 88 72 90 / 40 80 20 60
PANAMA CITY 76 89 76 89 / 50 20 20 20
DOTHAN 71 90 71 91 / 30 20 10 40
ALBANY 72 90 71 91 / 20 30 10 50
VALDOSTA 72 87 71 92 / 40 80 30 40
CROSS CITY 73 86 73 91 / 60 100 60 40
APALACHICOLA 76 87 77 88 / 60 80 20 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ012>019-027>029-034-
112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR GMZ730-755-765-
775.
UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...MERRIFIELD
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG/IG3
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