718
FXUS62 KTAE 031444
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1044 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW UPDATE, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE. IF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OCCUR IN THE SAME PLACES
THAT GOT HEAVIER RAIN THIS PAST WEEKEND, THEN FLASH FLOODING
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
- A TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL COVERAGE AND RHYTHM OF
SUMMER THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR FROM NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FROM
WEDNESDAY ON, WE WILL MAINLY HAVE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, PLUS MORNING STORMS OVER THE GULF AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE MAIN UPDATE HAS BEEN TO TRIM ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FLOOD WATCH, OR ROUGHLY FROM JEFFERSON COUNTY WESTWARD. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY SHOW DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY ARRIVING WEST OF THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA
RIVERS, WHICH WILL LIMIT FURTHER POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THAT DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND. THE AIR
MASS REMAINS RICHLY MOIST, AND THERE ARE STILL A FEW FEW MORE
HOURS LEFT FOR THE WESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO ORGANIZE
THUNDERSTORMS IN TRAINING BANDS POINTED INLAND FROM THE GULF.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WE MAY BE ABLE TO KILL OFF THE REST OF THE
FLOOD WATCH EARLY... BEFORE ITS NATURAL EXPIRATION THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
THIS DISCUSSION HAS PROBABLY BEEN SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD
FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PULLING IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP THE
REGION PRIMED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH AN ADDITIONAL
1-3 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE
OCCURING OVER THE FL BIG BEND AND ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WE WILL
START DRYING OUT IN SE AL AND SW GA COUNTIES AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTH TODAY, ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AND
LOWERING THE RAIN CHANCES. THESE COUNTIES MAY SEE 0.25-1" OF
RAINFALL, MAINLY THIS MORNING. POPS DECREASE TO 30% AND LESS FOR
THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT/APALACHICOLA
RIVERS. THE WPC HAS THE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE ALBANY TO
PANAMA CITY LINE IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WITH THE EXTREME SE BIG BEND IN A SLIGHT (2 OF 4) RISK
TODAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES WITH LIGHT WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS MOSTLY PASSED. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LINGERS
NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT WEAKENING. POPS FOR TUESDAY ARE AROUND
40-60 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BY MIDWEEK, WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH
POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE LONG TERM, BUT PWATS ARE
LOWER RANGING AROUND 1.5-2", LOWERING OUR CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN
RATES. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100-108 DEGREES, AND
ISOLATED AREAS UP TO 112. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
A MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IN SE AL
AND THE FL PANHANDLE AND MORE MOIST AIR FURTHER EAST. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE GULF WATERS INTO THE FL
BIG BEND AND SOUTHERN GA. THE DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
TODAY ALONG WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
SHRA REDEVELOPING LATER TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE AREA ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TAFS, HAVE CONVECTION
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING FROM ABY-TLH THEN EVENTUALLY
AT VLD. LOW PROBS ON WHERE ANY SHRA REDEVELOPS LATER TODAY AND
HAVE KEPT OUT OF TAFS. SOME IFR REPORTED THIS MORNING AND AT ABY
WITH MODELS SHOWING IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS 13-14Z TO VFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF CAUTIONARY LEVELS WILL HOLD OVER APALACHEE BAY
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH 4-5 FT SEAS. TONIGHT, WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN DECREASING WHERE WE CAN SEE 2 FT WAVES AND LIGHT
TO GENTLE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO VEER SOUTHERLY BY MIDWEEK AND SHIFT EASTERLY TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE FL BIG BEND AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THIS
AFTERNOON, DISTRICTS WEST OF THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS
WILL SEE A WESTERN SHIFT IN TRANSPORT WINDS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. DISPERSIONS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FL AND
AL WIREGRASS REGIONS TO A MODERATE LEVEL. FAIR TO MODERATE
DISPERSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER, AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST AS WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITH SCATTERED POPS OF 30-60 PERCENT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DIXIE, TAYLOR, LAFAYETTE,
MADISON AND COASTAL JEFFERSON COUNTIES. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FORM INTO A TRAINING BAND OR TWO
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD THEN BRING POCKETS OF 3+ INCH
ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS. IF THIS OCCURS WHERE HEAVIER RAIN ALREADY
OCCURRED THIS PAST WEEKEND, THEN FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
ONCE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED, WE COULD CANCEL THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLOOD WATCH EARLY.
GAGED RIVERS ARE RUNNING ENTIRELY BELOW RESPECTIVE FLOOD STAGES
AND WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS. BEAR CREEK (BAY COUNTY) HAS FALLEN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE. ELSEWHERE, CURRENT TRENDS IN BOTH RAINFALL AND
HYDROGRAPHS SUGGEST NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
AFTER TODAY, WE WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A NORMAL AMOUNT AND RHYTHM
OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. THIS MEANS THAT FLOODING WILL REVERT
BACK TO THE SHORT-LIVED NUISANCE VARIETY BENEATH CORE OF HEAVIER
STORMS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 88 72 91 73 / 70 10 70 10
PANAMA CITY 89 76 90 77 / 20 20 20 10
DOTHAN 90 72 91 72 / 20 10 20 10
ALBANY 90 72 91 72 / 20 10 40 10
VALDOSTA 88 71 92 72 / 70 20 50 10
CROSS CITY 86 73 91 73 / 90 50 30 20
APALACHICOLA 87 77 88 77 / 70 20 30 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ019-028-029-034-
118-128-134.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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