159
FXUS62 KTAE 040001
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
801 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
- THE RECENT ANOMALOUSLY WET PATTERN IS WINDING DOWN, AND THE
THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ENDING. STARTING WEDNESDAY, WE
WILL FULLY RETURN TO A TYPICAL COVERAGE AND RHYTHM OF SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORMS, FEATURING MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
STORMS, PLUS MORNING STORMS OVER THE GULF AND IMMEDIATE COAST.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE RECENT ANOMALOUSLY WET PATTERN IS WINDING DOWN, AND THE THREAT
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ENDING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS NICELY SHOWN DRIER MID- LEVEL AIR, WHICH
WAS OVER ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING, SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE THE DRIER AIR HAS
ARRIVED, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS BEEN SHARPLY CURTAILED TODAY. THE
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE SERVICE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WE HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
LAST FEW COUNTIES WHERE IT WAS IN EFFECT.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S., WHICH BROUGHT THE
UNSETTLED FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE NE GULF COAST, IS CUTTING
OFF INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW OVER GEORGIA. IT WILL
START TO FILL ON TUESDAY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS WILL
WEAKEN OUR WESTERLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND LESSEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOCUSING THUNDERSTORMS INTO SLOW-MOVING LINES OR CLUSTERS LIKE
THE ONES THAT HAVE BROUGHT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RECENTLY. PLUS, THE
AIR MASS WILL SIMPLY NOT BE AS MOIST. HOWEVER, WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN. PLUS, DESTABILIZING COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE PRESENT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER
GEORGIA. SO THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING ON TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE MORE SPOTTY, AND
INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL BE SMALLER AND SHORTER-LIVED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER GEORGIA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND NEARLY DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH OUT NEAR BERMUDA WILL EXTEND A
RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO ALABAMA, PUTTING THE REGION
IN LOW-MID LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM FROM LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL PUT US BACK INTO ONE OF OUR MOST QUINTESSENTIAL SUMMER
PATTERNS. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S),
SEASONABLE DEWPOINTS (MID 70S), SEASONABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THE 1.7 TO 2.1 INCH RANGE, AND A SEASONABLE DAILY RHYTHM
OF SCATTERED SEABREEZE-FOCUSED CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG
MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR VLD, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA AND ALABAMA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY, CAUSING SOUTHWEST BREEZES
TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL
THEN BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO ALABAMA FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING A TURN TO GENTLE AND MODERATE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE REGION HAS STARTED A TRANSITION AWAY FROM THE RECENT WET PATTERN
FEATURING HEAVY RAIN AT ANY TIME OF THE DAY OR NIGHT. INSTEAD BY
WEDNESDAY, WE WILL HAVE FULLY RETURNED TO A MORE TYPICAL COVERAGE
AND AFTERNOON RHYTHM OF SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORMS. WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY, GO LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY,
THEN TURN EASTERLY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, A
SEASONABLY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ENDING, AND THE FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY. NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
WE NOW TRANSITION BACK INTO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HYDRO
REGIME, IN WHICH ANY CONCERNS ARE OF THE SHORT-LIVED NUISANCE
VARIETY, STEMMING FROM BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES BENEATH
THE CORE OF HEAVIER STORMS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 91 73 91 / 20 40 20 40
PANAMA CITY 75 89 76 90 / 20 20 20 10
DOTHAN 71 91 72 91 / 10 20 10 20
ALBANY 71 91 72 91 / 10 40 10 20
VALDOSTA 70 93 72 93 / 30 50 30 30
CROSS CITY 73 91 72 91 / 40 30 20 30
APALACHICOLA 76 89 77 87 / 30 40 20 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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