702
FXUS62 KTAE 041720
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
120 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- DAILY CONVECTION ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO A SEASONAL LOW TO MID-90S. STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF AND IMMEDIATE COASTS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 947 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
ONLY MINOR UPDATES THIS MORNING TO THE POPS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, FORECAST IS ON
TRACK, WITH BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN HALF OF
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
A CUTOFF LOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CIRCLING AROUND THE CWA.
STORMS TODAY WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND THEN PUSH INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MORE
"PULSY" IN NATURE AND SHOULD BE BRIEF. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FOLLOWING SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. POPS TODAY RANGE FROM ABOUT 30-60% WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE FLINT/APALACHICOLA RIVERS.
THERE ARE NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISKS FOR TODAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE
ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS, A STRONG CORE COULD CREATE SOME
NUISANCE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. THIS IS A LOW
CHANCE, LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE
MID-LEVELS WILL BE PRETTY DRY OVER OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARM IN THE LOW 90S, WITH HEAT INDICES
AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MOST PLACES. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING US WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE FINALLY LIFTED AND
DISSIPATED BY THE START OF THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. OUR WEATHER WILL
BE DRIVEN BY THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA. PWATS WILL RANGE AROUND 1.5-2.1 INCHES, LOWERING THE
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WE CAN NOW EXPECT MORE TYPICAL AUGUST SUMMERTIME PATTERNS WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. POPS GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 30-60% THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON
THURSDAY, GENERATING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH POPS RANGING FORM 60-70% ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR WITH PWATS AROUND 1.9-2.1". AS A PRECAUTION, THE WPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE ALBANY TO PERRY LINE IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF A
FEW TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE EASTERN
TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
A CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA WILL LIFT FURTHER
NORTH AND WEAKEN THEN DISSIPATE BY MID WEEK. AS A RESULT, OUR
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL DECREASE AND BECOME EASTERLY BY
MID WEEK AS THE BERMUDA HIGH SPREADS WESTWARD INTO OUR REGION. WE
CAN EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES HEADING INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHIFT FROM
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. AN
OVERALL SHIFT TO EASTERLY CAN BE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND
100-105 DEGREES FOR MOST DISTRICTS.
FAIR TO MODERATE DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. SUCH ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY START NEAR
AND ALONG THE COAST, THEN MOVE INLAND WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WITH POPS OF GENERALLY 30-60% EACH DAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THE RAINY PATTERN WE HAD OVER THE WEEKEND HAS FINALLY BROKEN. THE
MOISTURE CONTENT TODAY WILL STILL BE ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD GENERATE
HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER, THE CHANCES OF THIS OCCURING ARE LOW WITH
FORECAST PWATS AROUND 1.5-1.8".
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON THURSDAY, GENERATING A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. AS A PRECAUTION, THE WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA
ALONG AND EAST OF THE ALBANY TO PERRY LINE IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 73 92 73 92 / 20 30 10 40
PANAMA CITY 77 90 75 90 / 10 10 0 30
DOTHAN 72 92 72 92 / 10 30 10 20
ALBANY 72 92 73 93 / 10 30 10 40
VALDOSTA 71 94 72 94 / 20 30 10 60
CROSS CITY 73 92 72 93 / 20 40 10 70
APALACHICOLA 77 88 77 87 / 20 10 10 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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