545
FXUS62 KTAE 042350
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
750 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, PLUS
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT MINOR TO MODERATE
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING NEAR ATLANTA METRO,
WITH WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK
ACROSS OUR SERVICE AREA. THE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME COLDER
AIR ALOFT, WHICH IS AIDING IN THE UNCAPPED AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE CONVECTION THAT WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SATELLITE- DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW)
IMAGERY SHOWS VALUES OVER OUR REGION RANGING FROM 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES, WITH THE DRIER VALUES IN THAT RANGE OVER LOWER ALABAMA
TODAY. THESE VALUES ARE IN THE 10TH TO 30TH PERCENTILE RANGES FOR
EARLY AUGUST, ACCORDING TO THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. IN OTHER
WORDS, THE AIR MASS IS DRIER THAN NORMAL, AND WE ARE EVEN SEEING
INLAND SURFACE DEWPOINTS OCCASIONALLY DIPPING INTO THE LESS
UNCOMFORTABLE UPPER 60S.
MOVING INTO TONIGHT, THE LOW CENTER TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN AND
FILL, NEARLY DISSIPATING ON WEDNESDAY. OUR 1000-700 MB FLOW WILL
RESPOND BY GOING FROM WESTERLY TO A SLUGGISH SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
THE CHARACTER OF THE AIR MASS ON WEDNESDAY WILL CHANGE LITTLE
FROM TODAY, IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY, SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT,
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE SCATTERED
CONVECTION... NOTHING EXCESSIVELY STRONG OR HEAVY, WITH THE
SEABREEZE FRONT PROVIDING THE MOST EFFECTIVE FOCUS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
VERY TYPICAL AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH NO LARGER-SCALE HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
ON THURSDAY, THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH OUT NEAR BERMUDA WILL
EXPAND WEST AS A DULL RIDGE INTO GEORGIA AND PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY. OUR 1000-700 MB LAYER FLOW WILL RESPOND WITH A SOUTHEAST
TURN. THIS WILL TAP INTO THE RICHER AND DEEPER MOISTURE THAT HAS
BEEN SIDELINED DOWN OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, BRINGING A RETURN OF
THAT MOISTURE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY, PERHAPS TAKING
UNTIL FRIDAY TO REACH OUR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE
AND SE ALABAMA. AS THE MOISTURE RETURNS, PW VALUES WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 1.8 TO 2.1 INCH RANGE, WHICH IS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY MOISTER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.
THE DULL RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
SERVICE AREA THIS WEEKEND, ARRIVING OVER THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALBEIT WEAK, OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
WEEKEND, THEN SOUTHWESTERLY NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGHOUT, SO A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SCATTERED COVERAGE AND DAILY RHYTHM OF CONVECTION WILL
PREVAIL EACH DAY. THE CHANGING FLOW DIRECTION WILL MAINLY AFFECT
WHICH LOCATIONS ARE MOST PRONE TO CONVECTION, BASED ON HOW THE
SEABREEZE LOCALLY ALIGNS WITH AND MOVES IN THE GENERAL BACKGROUND
WIND.
IN SUMMARY, THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ALMOST AS NORMAL AS IT
GETS FOR EARLY AUGUST. THE IMPACT OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK. THERE WILL ALSO BE
THE DAILY THREAT OF SHORTER- LIVED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT ECP. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS START BACK
UP LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHERE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN/AROUND DOWNPOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
LOW PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE
ON WEDNESDAY. THE DULL WESTERN EDGE OF AN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL NOSE IN ACROSS GEORGIA AND FAR NORTH FLORIDA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING A TURN TO GENTLE AND MODERATE
EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ON SUNDAY, CAUSING WINDS TO
SLOWLY CLOCK AROUND SOUTHERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS
IN THE VICINITY OF OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
A SEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, LEADING TO MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK
EACH DAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THE ONLY HYDROLOGIC ISSUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL CONSIST OF BRIEF
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS BENEATH HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS, PRODUCING
SHORT-LIVED NUISANCE RUNOFF ISSUES. NO FLASH FLOODING AND NO RIVER
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 91 72 91 / 20 30 10 40
PANAMA CITY 76 90 75 90 / 20 30 10 20
DOTHAN 72 91 72 92 / 20 30 20 10
ALBANY 72 92 72 92 / 30 30 20 20
VALDOSTA 71 93 72 93 / 30 30 20 60
CROSS CITY 73 90 72 91 / 30 40 30 70
APALACHICOLA 77 88 76 88 / 20 30 10 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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