778
FXUS62 KTAE 051306
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
906 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 905 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
- A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 905 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, AND NO CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
THERE MAY BE SOME LOCATIONS INLAND THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING AROUND DAYBREAK. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE.
THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER,
THE REMAINING TROUGH WILL STILL BE DRAWING IN MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF WITH LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WITH THE DRY AIR
IN THE MIDLEVELS, ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT
LIVED. POPS FOR TODAY RANGE AROUND 30-50%. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S WITH A HEAT INDEX
AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXTEND JUST ENOUGH WESTWARD AT THE START OF
THIS TERM TO SHIFT OUR WINDS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY. THE
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PULL IN MOISTURE THAT IS OVER THE
PENINSULA; INCREASING OUR PWATS TO 1.8-2.2". THAT WILL INCREASE
OUR RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE NORTHERN AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF OUR REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND, DRAWING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. WE CAN STILL
EXPECT DAILY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. POPS FOR THIS
WEEKEND RANGE AROUND 40- 60%.
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE, JUST A QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP. OVERALL, A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH POPS RANGING 30-50%. TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID-90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID-70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
FIRST ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COAST AND MOVE INLAND ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING HOURS.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR
HEAVIER CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
THEN SHIFTING EASTERLY ON THURSDAY. EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH GENTLE BREEZES AS THE BERMUDA HIGH
EXPANDS WESTWARD OVER OUR WATERS. A RETURN TO SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL HAPPEN ON SUNDAY INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH NORTHERN AXIS TILTS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE FAIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WPC DOES HAVE
THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY, AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY FOR
AREAS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN GEORGIA. HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS
MAY RESULT IN NUISANCE RUN-OFF FLOODING, HOWEVER FLASH AND
RIVERINE FLOODING ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 91 73 91 73 / 30 10 40 30
PANAMA CITY 90 75 91 74 / 20 0 40 10
DOTHAN 92 72 93 73 / 30 20 50 30
ALBANY 92 73 93 73 / 30 30 60 40
VALDOSTA 94 72 94 72 / 40 20 60 30
CROSS CITY 90 72 92 73 / 60 20 60 30
APALACHICOLA 88 76 87 76 / 20 20 30 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page