538
FXUS62 KTAE 060030
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
830 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 829 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
- SEASONABLE SUMMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES THE DAILY RHYTHM OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, PLUS MORNING STORMS OVER THE GULF AND NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. NORMAL LEVELS OF SUMMER HEAT WILL BRING MINOR
TO MODERATE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 829 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LONG AXIS OF RICHER, DEEPER MOISTURE OFF
TO OUR EAST, EXTENDING FROM SW FL TO COASTAL SC. WITHIN THAT AXIS,
VERY MOIST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 2 TO 2.3
INCHES. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS MOIST CORRIDOR IS CURRENTLY
CLIPPING THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, BUT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS
UNDER SLIGHTLY DRIER PWATS RANGING FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES.
TONIGHT, OUR WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AROUND
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, AS THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR BERMUDA
STARTS TO EXPAND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WILL SHOVE THE
MOIST AXIS INTO OUR EASTERN TIME ZONE COUNTIES ON THURSDAY,
PARTICULARLY AREAS EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT. POPS WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE IN THESE AREAS TOMORROW, WITH AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING AN INCREASED NUMBER
OF LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES BENEATH STORM
CORES.
FOR OUR CENTRAL TIME ZONE COUNTIES, THE MOISTER AIR WILL WAIT
UNTIL FRIDAY TO REACH YOU, SO NO CHANGE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
1000-700 MB LAYER FLOW WILL BACK AROUND A BIT MORE EASTERLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PUSHING MOISTER AIR WESTWARD INTO OUR
CENTRAL TIME ZONE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SERVICE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN IN A
SEASONABLE 1.7 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE, BUT WEAKER FLOW AND WEAK
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TO BE MORE CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE ZONE OVER OUR FL COUNTIES.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SO WE WILL GET INTO WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD A LITTLE AROUND MIDWEEK,
WHICH COULD BRING A SMALL UPWARD BUMP IN TEMPERATURES AND A LITTLE
SUBSIDENCE TO NUDGE PW VALUES DOWN A LITTLE. FROM A SENSIBLE
STANDPOINT, THESE SUBTLE CHANGES MAY NOT BE DISCERNIBLE AND COULD
SEEM LIKE MORE OF THE SAME SEASONABLE SUMMER WEATHER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME BRIEF,
PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE FOR ANY TAF SITES. FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST
CHANCES AT VLD, TLH, AND ABY. LOWER CHANCES EXIST FOR ECP AND DHN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OUT NEAR BERMUDA WILL BUILD A RIDGE WESTWARD
ACROSS GEORGIA TONIGHT, PERSISTING NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY. DURING THIS TIME, GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL. ON MONDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS, BRINGING LIGHTER AND
MORE VARIABLE BREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT WEEK, WITH
SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES, A SEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS, AND THE DAILY RHYTHM OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL THEREFORE BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF AFTERNOON STORMS. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL BRING MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT-RELATED HEALTH
IMPACTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
NO FLASH FLOODING AND NO RIVER FLOODING ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
7 DAYS.
A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN FEATURING THE DAILY RHYTHM OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL. THEREFORE, THE ONLY
CONCERN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED NUISANCE FLOODING BENEATH THE CORES
OF HEAVIER STORMS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 73 90 73 92 / 20 40 30 20
PANAMA CITY 75 90 74 91 / 10 20 20 30
DOTHAN 72 92 72 92 / 20 20 30 30
ALBANY 72 91 73 92 / 20 30 30 20
VALDOSTA 72 92 72 95 / 20 60 40 20
CROSS CITY 72 91 72 92 / 30 60 30 50
APALACHICOLA 76 88 76 89 / 20 30 40 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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