128
FXUS62 KTAE 061630
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1230 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MERIDIONAL FLOW MAINTAINING A MOIST AIR MASS WITH PWATS NEAR
AVERAGE. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL FOCUS
AROUND AND EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS, BUT ANY
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO FIRE TO THE WEST MAY BE CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN HIGHER DCAPE. ON FRIDAY,
THE PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WEST
OF THE FLINT/APALACHICOLA.
A WESTWARD TRANSLATING INVERTED TROUGH ROUNDING THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE PWATS INTO THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. THIS RESULTS IN GREATER SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE I-10/I-75 CORRIDORS WHERE THE SEABREEZES
COLLIDE. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, THE 0-3 KM FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY WESTERLY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT.
THIS WILL FAVOR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIP CHANCES, AND IN TURN,
INCREASING HEAT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES ON
STATION AT TLH/VLD/ABY. IN ADDITION, THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE
APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN THE EVENING WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION SO
TSRA TIMING WAS EXTENDED INTO THE MID/LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL MAXIMIZE
EACH MORNING. FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING, WINDS WILL
BECOME ONSHORE AND MAXIMIZE WITHIN THE SEABREEZE ZONE. BY THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS, IN
ADDITION TO LIGHTNING. EASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS BOTH DAYS WITH THE
SEABREEZE MAKING INLAND PROGRESS. GENERALLY FAIR DISPERSIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
THE PATTERN WILL TREND DRIER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO END UP
BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS
VERY LOW AND RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 73 93 75 / 50 20 20 10
PANAMA CITY 91 75 91 75 / 20 20 50 0
DOTHAN 93 73 92 74 / 20 20 20 10
ALBANY 93 73 93 74 / 50 30 20 10
VALDOSTA 94 72 95 73 / 60 30 20 0
CROSS CITY 93 72 93 73 / 60 30 50 10
APALACHICOLA 88 77 88 77 / 30 60 50 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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