704
FXUS62 KTAE 062341
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
741 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THIS EVENING ALONG AN
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THEY'RE NOT MOVING MUCH AS THEY DRIFT
NORTH-NORTHWEST. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IS RACING NW THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND MAY SPARK
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
ARE FINALLY WEAKENING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE HERE IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. ALTHOUGH, WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON RADAR FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS
IT ALSO HEADS NW THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MERIDIONAL FLOW MAINTAINING A MOIST AIR MASS WITH PWATS NEAR
AVERAGE. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL FOCUS
AROUND AND EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS, BUT ANY
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO FIRE TO THE WEST MAY BE CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN HIGHER DCAPE. ON FRIDAY,
THE PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WEST
OF THE FLINT/APALACHICOLA.
A WESTWARD TRANSLATING INVERTED TROUGH ROUNDING THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE PWATS INTO THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. THIS RESULTS IN GREATER SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN THE I-10/I-75 CORRIDORS WHERE THE
SEABREEZES COLLIDE. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, THE 0-3 KM FLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY WESTERLY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT.
THIS WILL FAVOR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIP CHANCES, AND IN TURN,
INCREASING HEAT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE AREA WITH
THE ACTIVITY NEAR KVLD ON A DOWNWARD TREND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE BUBBLING UP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF KDHN AND KECP
RESPECTIVELY, BUT ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AERODROMES. MEANWHILE,
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE HEADING FOR KTLH AND KABY AND MAY SPARK
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR KTLH AT THIS TIME. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
AS WE SEE IF AND WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS FORM ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY FOR KTLH,
KECP, AND KVLD, AGAIN TOMORROW WHERE PROB30 GROUPS ARE IN PLACE;
THERE'S ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR KABY AND KDHN,
BUT CHANCES AND CONFIDENCE ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL MAXIMIZE
EACH MORNING. FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING, WINDS WILL
BECOME ONSHORE AND MAXIMIZE WITHIN THE SEABREEZE ZONE. BY THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS, IN
ADDITION TO LIGHTNING. EASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS BOTH DAYS WITH THE
SEABREEZE MAKING INLAND PROGRESS. GENERALLY FAIR DISPERSIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
THE PATTERN WILL TREND DRIER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO END UP
BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS
VERY LOW AND RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 73 93 74 92 / 20 20 20 50
PANAMA CITY 75 91 75 91 / 10 40 20 40
DOTHAN 73 92 74 92 / 20 20 20 30
ALBANY 73 93 73 93 / 30 20 20 40
VALDOSTA 72 95 73 93 / 20 30 20 60
CROSS CITY 72 92 73 90 / 20 50 30 80
APALACHICOLA 76 88 77 88 / 30 30 30 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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