856
FXUS62 KTAE 071339
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
939 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN
GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN DALE AND QUITMAN COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THESE FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE THE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS USUALLY
RESULTS IN A LATER START TO OUR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE EASTERN BIG BEND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVING WESTWARD AND DECREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY
SEVERE GIVEN DCAPE OF 1000-1300 J/KG AND 1000-700 MB MEAN FLOW
AROUND 15 KT. THE BEST THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE MAINLY IN
THE EASTERN BIG BEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105.
ON SATURDAY, THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL SPREAD THE RAIN CHANCES OUT A
BIT MORE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
OVER MORE OF THE AREA. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE CLOSER
TO I-75 AND THE EASTERN BIG BEND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE RESIDES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 102-107.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO EXTEND OVER OUR
AREA, WHICH WILL REDUCE RAIN CHANCES BELOW WHAT IS NORMAL FOR
SUMMERTIME ALONG THE GULF COAST. WITH THE DRIER WEATHER,
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP BACK TOWARD THE MID 90S AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE. HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED
AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW TODAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
ACROSS TLH/ECP/VLD AND LOWER CHANCES FURTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS DHN/ABY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WITH 1-2 FOOT SEAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, MAINLY DURING THE EVENING THROUGH MORNING HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY, AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA ZONES. GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
STORMS. OTHERWISE, TRANSPORT WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-10 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
LOCALIZED NUISANCE-TYPE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SLOWLY EACH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE ONLY RIVER IN ACTION STAGE IS THE
FENHOLLOWAY RIVER NEAR FOLEY, BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD
STAGE. ALL OTHER RIVERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 93 74 92 75 / 20 30 40 10
PANAMA CITY 91 75 92 76 / 20 20 40 20
DOTHAN 91 74 93 74 / 20 0 30 20
ALBANY 92 73 92 74 / 20 10 40 10
VALDOSTA 95 73 93 73 / 20 20 60 30
CROSS CITY 92 73 91 73 / 60 20 60 10
APALACHICOLA 88 76 88 78 / 20 20 30 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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