904
FXUS62 KTAE 071630
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1230 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY WITH
MERIDIONAL FLOW MAINTAINING A MOIST AIR MASS YIELDING PWATS
NEAR AVERAGE. MEANWHILE, SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING WILL FOCUS FROM I-75 IN GA INTO THE EASTERN FL BIG
BEND. HIGH DCAPE ONCE AGAIN WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL
WITH ANY STORMS, IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING.
A WESTWARD TRANSLATING INVERTED TROUGH ROUNDING THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE PWATS INTO THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. THIS RESULTS IN GREATER SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE
THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN THE I-10/I-75 CORRIDORS WHERE THE
SEABREEZES COLLIDE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, 0-3 KM FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
WESTERLY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. THIS WILL FAVOR
BELOW AVERAGE PRECIP CHANCES, AND IN TURN, INCREASING HEAT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW TODAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
ACROSS TLH/ECP/VLD AND LOWER CHANCES FURTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS DHN/ABY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL MAXIMIZE
EACH MORNING. FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING, WINDS WILL
BECOME ONSHORE AND MAXIMIZE WITHIN THE SEABREEZE ZONE. BY THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS, IN ADDITION
TO LIGHTNING. EASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ON SATURDAY BECOME SOUTHERLY
ON SUNDAY, WHEN THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE MORE INLAND PROGRESS. EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND, EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR DISPERSIONS, WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THE PATTERN WILL TREND DRIER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO END UP
BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS
VERY LOW AND RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 93 74 92 75 / 20 30 40 10
PANAMA CITY 91 75 92 76 / 20 20 40 20
DOTHAN 91 74 93 74 / 20 0 30 20
ALBANY 92 73 92 74 / 20 10 40 10
VALDOSTA 95 73 93 73 / 20 20 60 30
CROSS CITY 92 73 91 73 / 60 20 60 10
APALACHICOLA 88 76 88 78 / 20 20 30 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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