824
FXUS62 KTAE 080203
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1003 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST WERE REQUIRED. QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT A BATCH OF CONVECTION MAY ENCROACH ON THE
FORGOTTEN COAST FROM APALACHEE BAY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY WITH
MERIDIONAL FLOW MAINTAINING A MOIST AIR MASS YIELDING PWATS
NEAR AVERAGE. MEANWHILE, SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING WILL FOCUS FROM I-75 IN GA INTO THE EASTERN FL BIG
BEND. HIGH DCAPE ONCE AGAIN WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL
WITH ANY STORMS, IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING.
A WESTWARD TRANSLATING INVERTED TROUGH ROUNDING THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE PWATS INTO THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. THIS RESULTS IN GREATER SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE
THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN THE I-10/I-75 CORRIDORS WHERE THE
SEABREEZES COLLIDE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, 0-3 KM FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
WESTERLY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT. THIS WILL FAVOR
BELOW AVERAGE PRECIP CHANCES, AND IN TURN, INCREASING HEAT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF A POTENTIALLY BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TMRW MORNING INVOF VLD AND AWAY FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL. WINDS GO LGT/VRB
OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BELOW 10 KTS. INTRODUCED
PROB30 GROUPS FOR -TSRA/-SHRA AT ALL SITES AT THE END OF THIS TAF
(18-24Z). HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER IN DESCENDING ORDER ARE
TLH, VLD, ECP. SOME MORNING CONVECTION MAY ENCROACH ON THE FORMER,
SO ADDED VCSH AT 15Z TO ACCT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL MAXIMIZE
EACH MORNING. FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING, WINDS WILL
BECOME ONSHORE AND MAXIMIZE WITHIN THE SEABREEZE ZONE. BY THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS, IN ADDITION
TO LIGHTNING. EASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ON SATURDAY BECOME SOUTHERLY
ON SUNDAY, WHEN THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE MORE INLAND PROGRESS. EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND, EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR DISPERSIONS, WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THE PATTERN WILL TREND DRIER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO END UP
BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS
VERY LOW AND RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 74 90 75 92 / 10 50 20 50
PANAMA CITY 75 91 76 90 / 10 30 20 30
DOTHAN 74 92 74 92 / 10 20 10 50
ALBANY 73 91 74 92 / 10 20 20 40
VALDOSTA 73 91 73 93 / 20 60 30 60
CROSS CITY 73 89 74 92 / 20 50 30 60
APALACHICOLA 76 87 78 88 / 20 40 20 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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