110
FXUS62 KTAE 081310
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
910 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 903 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE. SOME STRONGER
STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- HEAT WILL BUILD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES (10-30%) OF
NEEDING HEAT ADVISORIES FROM MONDAY ONWARD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 903 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
TODAY'S RAIN CHANCES WERE TWEAKED BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS. SATELLITE-DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS AN
EXTENSIVE SWATH OF 2+ INCHES ROUGHLY ALONG AND NE OF TYNDALL AFB
WITH THE 12Z KJAX SOUNDING HIGHLIGHTING 2.42 INCHES. THIS RICH
MOISTURE FOSTERED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD FUEL BETTER
COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.
THE SEABREEZE AND ANY SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PLAY
CONTRIBUTING ROLES TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION. THE
STEERING FLOW IS FAIRLY LIGHT AT AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH,
SO EXPECT SLOW NORTH TO NW MOVING CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY TROPICAL DOWNPOURS THAT MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED NUISANCE
FLOODING. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE ADDITIONAL
CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHIFTS A
BIT SOUTHWARD TODAY, WHICH TURNS OUR FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY RATHER THAN
EASTERLY. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A BIT MORE MOISTURE ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE HIGHEST
OVER THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND I-75 CORRIDOR (50-70%) THANKS TO A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE REST OF THE
AREA HAS ABOUT A 20-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS, THE ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE AS SUPPORTIVE AS PREVIOUS DAYS
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS DCAPE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER HALF
OF THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102-107. SHOWERS AND STORMS
FADE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RE-ESTABLISHED, COASTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY, THEN SPREAD INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AROUND 40-60% AREA WIDE.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. GIVEN A BIT MORE MOISTURE, HEAT
INDEX VALUES CREEP UPWARD TO 103-108. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT WE
WON'T HAVE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES REACHING ADVISORY LEVEL, BUT
LOCALLY DANGEROUS HEAT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, RIDGING EXPANDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF,
WHICH WILL ACT TO REDUCE OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. THIS
WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE A BIT WITH MANY AREAS IN
THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD BE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF A POTENTIALLY
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING ACROSS TLH/VLD FROM 11-15Z.
EAST WINDS EXPECTED BELOW 10 KTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION ABOVE PROB30
GROUPS FOR -TSRA/-SHRA AT ALL SITES BY LATER PORTIONS OF THE TAF
(18-24Z). HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON IS ACROSS
TLH/VLD/ECP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES DECREASES. SEAS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, STARTING NEAR
THE COAST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, SPREADING INLAND DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS. OTHERWISE, TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-10 MPH TODAY, THEN SHIFTING OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY. DISPERSIONS WILL BE GOOD EACH
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
LOCALIZED NUISANCE-TYPE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SLOWLY EACH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE ONLY RIVER IN ACTION STAGE IS THE
FENHOLLOWAY RIVER NEAR FOLEY, BUT IT IS NOW FALLING. ALL OTHER
RIVERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 91 75 92 75 / 40 20 40 0
PANAMA CITY 93 76 90 77 / 30 20 30 0
DOTHAN 94 74 93 74 / 10 10 50 10
ALBANY 92 74 93 75 / 30 20 60 20
VALDOSTA 92 73 95 74 / 60 40 40 10
CROSS CITY 91 74 93 74 / 50 10 40 0
APALACHICOLA 88 78 88 78 / 30 10 30 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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