287
FXUS62 KTAE 090510
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
110 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE. SOME STRONGER
STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- HEAT WILL BUILD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES (10-30%) OF
NEEDING HEAT ADVISORIES FROM MONDAY ONWARD.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY SHOULD FOCUS EAST OF
THE FLINT AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED HIGHER PWATS (30-70% CHANCE). ALSO, DECENT CU FIELD
IN SE AL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, SO MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS UP A
BIT THERE IF THAT TREND CONTINUES. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS
THERE IS LESS DCAPE SO SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL WITH STORMS IS
MORE LIMITED. ON SUNDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHERLY AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST, WHICH WILL TEND
TO LIMIT POPS IN THE 20-40% RANGE.
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE REGION INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD KEEP POPS BELOW AVERAGE AND WILL ALSO LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN THE HEAT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES (10 TO 30%) OF NEEDING HEAT
ADVISORIES FROM MONDAY ONWARD. WHILE POPS WILL BE MORE LIMITED,
SIGNALS FOR HIGHER DCAPE AND SEASONABLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY
ALSO LEAD TO MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL FROM MONDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AND BROKEN CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE, MOSTLY AT ECP/TLH/VLD. ANY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS FORECAST. MOST
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 18-24Z BUT FLORIDA TERMINALS
COULD SEE A SLIGHTLY EARLIER START, ESPECIALLY ACROSS ECP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS MAINLY AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET,
EXCEPT BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
MORNING FAIR WEATHER WATERSPOUTS ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK, MAXIMIZING WITHIN THE SEABREEZE FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE EVENING EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, STARTING
NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS IN
ADDITION TO LIGHTNING. SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ON SUNDAY BECOME
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY, WHILE THE SEABREEZE MAKES INLAND PROGRESS EACH
DAY, ALONG WITH GENERALLY FAIR DISPERSIONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100 TO 105 DEGREES ON SUNDAY MAY INCREASE FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THE PATTERN WILL TREND DRIER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO END UP
BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD FLOOD CONCERNS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. THE FENHOLLOWAY RIVER NEAR FOLEY IS AT THE CUSP
OF FALLING BELOW ACTION STAGE AS OF EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 75 93 75 / 30 10 40 0
PANAMA CITY 90 77 91 77 / 20 10 20 0
DOTHAN 93 74 93 74 / 30 10 30 10
ALBANY 94 75 95 75 / 20 10 20 0
VALDOSTA 94 74 95 75 / 30 10 30 0
CROSS CITY 93 74 93 74 / 40 10 40 0
APALACHICOLA 88 78 89 78 / 20 10 20 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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