367
FXUS62 KTAE 091725
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
125 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE. SOME STRONGER
STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- HEAT WILL BUILD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES (10-30%) OF
NEEDING HEAT ADVISORIES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 912 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WITH GENERALLY A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN PLACE.
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AND GENERALLY REMAIN THAT WAY
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE DOWN TO
20-40% EACH DAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNINGS, THEN MOVE INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A COUPLE STORMS EACH DAY COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP WITH HIGHS
EACH DAY IN THE MID 90S. WE SHOULD MIX OUT ENOUGH EACH AFTERNOON TO
MOSTLY STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS (108+ HEAT INDEX). BUT,
TUESDAY AND LATE IN THE WEEK HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110. CHANCES OVERALL ARE LOW (10-
30%) OF REACHING HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.
SPEAKING OF CONVECTION, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SEABREEZE IN FLORIDA AND A FEW MORE NORTHWEST OF KDHN
THAT ARE MOVING NNW. THE CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS FOR KDHN AND PERHAPS KABY AND KVLD LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT
OR EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF WATERSPOUTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH EACH DAY. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, MAINLY FROM THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS. OTHERWISE, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAIN LOW.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
LOCALIZED NUISANCE-TYPE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SLOWLY EACH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 93 75 94 75 / 20 0 40 0
PANAMA CITY 91 77 92 78 / 20 0 10 0
DOTHAN 94 74 93 74 / 30 20 30 0
ALBANY 95 75 95 76 / 20 10 20 0
VALDOSTA 95 74 96 75 / 40 20 20 0
CROSS CITY 94 74 93 74 / 40 0 40 0
APALACHICOLA 89 78 90 78 / 20 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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