160
FXUS62 KTAE 092320
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON, ALBEIT LOWER THAN NORMAL. CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE
OF GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
- TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO START OFF THE WEEK.
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT FOR POTENTIAL FEELS
LIKE TEMPERATURES OF 108F+ DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
PAVE THE WAY FOR A QUIET NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME MODEL
SIGNALS OF PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS OVER PARTS OF SE AL & SW GA EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE ALOFT TO OUR NW AND LINGERING WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OFF THE FL PANHANDLE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FOCUS ACROSS SOUTHERN AL, THE WESTERN
FL PANHANDLE, AND WIREGRASS REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE
DRIVEN CONVECTION ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-10 TOWARDS THE SE
FL BIG BEND, BUT CHANCES ARE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THANKS TO THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST.
OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK GREAT OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
LOCATIONS, SO EXPECT A HOT DAY CHARACTERIZED BY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100-107 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK,
THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR IMPACTFUL HOT WEATHER WITH LIMITED
OVERNIGHT RELIEF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL INTO THE 90S EACH DAY WITH HEAT
INDICES NEAR OR EXCEEDING ADVISORY LEVEL VALUES OF 108 DEGREES. THE
LATTER APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
CAVEATS WILL BE HOW MUCH EFFECTIVE AFTERNOON MIXING OCCURS AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FROM POTENTIAL RIDGE-RIDING MCS'.
ON THE SUBJECT OF CONVECTION, RAIN CHANCES ARE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE
BY EARLY AUGUST STANDARDS, BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME LOW-END DIURNAL
SIGNALS. RELATIVELY BETTER POTENTIAL IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND AS A
BACKDOOR FRONT ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE DOWN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WANE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. SOME LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
GA AND AL SITES IN THE MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW, BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS PREVAIL THANKS TO A PERSISTENT AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED WITH A DAILY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE INDUCING AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE LEGS. ISOLATED MARITIME CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
HOT TEMPERATURES, DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, AND POTENTIAL
HIGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS AROUND I-75 ARE THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHTS THE NEXT 3 DAYS. EXPECT TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES, WHICH
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS BY MID WEEK. CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY WETTING RAINS.
SEABREEZES ARE ANTICIPATED EACH AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL INDUCE A
SOUTHWEST WIND AMIDST MOSTLY PREVAILING WEST WINDS. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50% AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
THERE ARE MINIMAL FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALL
AREA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD SHAPE. AS OF AUGUST 6TH, MODERATE
TO SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND AND PARTS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL GA. MORE INFORMATION AT WWWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 94 75 96 / 0 20 0 20
PANAMA CITY 78 91 77 91 / 0 10 0 10
DOTHAN 74 94 74 95 / 10 20 10 20
ALBANY 75 96 76 95 / 20 10 10 20
VALDOSTA 74 96 75 97 / 10 10 10 10
CROSS CITY 74 93 74 94 / 10 40 0 10
APALACHICOLA 78 90 78 91 / 0 10 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...MERRIFIELD
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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