422
FXUS62 KTAE 240154
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
954 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL, RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWEST FOR TODAY, THEN
INCREASE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AN SPC MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY.
- ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY ACROSS OUR
FLORIDA COUNTIES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
THE ONLY CHANGES OF NOTE TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST WERE TO INTRODUCE
MENTIONABLE POP FOR A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS APALACHEE BAY AND ADDING "PATCHY FOG" TO THE POINT-AND-
CLICK WX GRIDS FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND INTO THE I-75
CORRIDOR. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP SOME TONIGHT LATER
TONIGHT NEAR THE AL WIREGRASS INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE THANKS
TO THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
AN SPC MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS
NOT ANTICIPATED, LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO ALLOW FOR WET MICROBURSTS TO
PRODUCE MARGINALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A STALLED FRONT TO THE NORTH AND EXISTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ARE POTENTIAL TRIGGERING MECHANISMS.
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER SPC
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS ALREADY IN PLACE DUE TO THE
CONTINUED COMBINATION OF A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME, DEEP MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. A WPC MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO IN PLACE.
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW THE CURRENT ADVISORY IS NOT
PANNING OUT. HOWEVER, FORECAST HEAT INDICES CURRENTLY SUPPORT ONE
FOR OUR FL COUNTIES AS WELL AS SOUTH GA FROM LOWNDES COUNTY EAST
ALONG THE FL BORDER TO LAKE SEMINOLE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
REASSESS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE CARBON COPIES OF MONDAY WITH SPC AND
WPC MARGINAL RISKS IN PLACE. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA DOES NOT
APPEAR IN JEOPARDY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. NEAR NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
TODAY'S CONVECTION, ALBEIT LIMITED, IS DYING OFF WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND WILL STEER CLEAR OF THE TERMINALS FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. AROUND SUNRISE, GUIDANCE POINTS TO A CORRIDOR
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MIST/BR FROM TLH TO VLD, WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF RICHER MOISTURE IN THE MORNING.
THE AIR MASS WILL MOISTEN A BIT ON MONDAY, AND A WEAK STALLED FRONT
WILL BE DRAPED CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE LINE. THIS WILL BE A
RECIPE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL
TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS, DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ANY CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS WEEK DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1 TO
2 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DISPERSIONS WILL REMAIN GOOD OVERALL
EACH AFTERNOON. INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
THERE IS A WPC MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IF THE STORMS ARE SLOW- MOVING, THEN THEY COULD PRODUCE SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SOME
NUISANCE TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY IN LOW-
LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 97 75 93 / 10 50 50 80
PANAMA CITY 79 92 78 90 / 10 20 60 70
DOTHAN 74 95 73 93 / 10 60 40 50
ALBANY 74 97 73 95 / 10 30 40 30
VALDOSTA 74 97 73 94 / 10 50 40 70
CROSS CITY 75 95 74 92 / 0 30 50 80
APALACHICOLA 80 92 78 89 / 10 30 50 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL
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