320
FXUS62 KTAE 242030 CCA
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
429 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
- ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON TODAY WITH HAZARDOUS HEAT FOCUSING OVER
PARTS OF THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL BIG BEND. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THAT REGION
THROUGH 7PM EDT/6PM CDT.
- STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY
AGAIN ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER IS IN PLACE NEARLY AREAWIDE.
- THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE MONITORED FOR STORM ACTIVITY
DIVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AMIDST OTHERWISE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF SEASONABLE HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
PERSISTENT RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO
PERSISTENT TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN PUTS US
UNDER PREVAILING W TO NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH HAS "RING OF FIRE"
IMPLICATIONS. THIS IS WHEN PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE 500MB FLOW LEAD
TO CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS (MCSS) THAT RIDE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AND DIVE
SOUTHEAST. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MAY SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BUT
WOULD ADD TO THE ROBUSTNESS OF ANY STORMS THAT DO MATERIALIZE,
AMPLIFYING THE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PREVAILING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE TO PUSH INLAND EACH DAY WITH THE
SEA BREEZE, FORCING OUR USUAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY-SPEAKING, SEA BREEZE SEASON TENDS TO BEGIN WINDING
DOWN AS WE HEAD INTO SEPTEMBER. ONCE WE GET TO THIS WEEKEND WE'LL
SEE THAT RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS SHIFT EASTWARD WHICH
WILL REDUCE OUR RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND TO NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE ECP TERMINAL DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS ACTIVITY MOVES IN FROM THE GULF. MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING THIS TAF PERIOD
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS THANKS
TO PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE MAIN
MARINE THREATS ARE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, POTENTIAL WATERSPOUTS, AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
FROM HEAVY RAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
THE MAIN FIRE CONCERNS ARE HAZARDOUS HEAT THIS AFTERNOON AND DAILY
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATTER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY
WETTING RAINS. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SEABREEZE. WEST TO SW
WINDS PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
WEEK FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY DOWNPOURS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY
NO RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 94 73 93 / 20 70 30 80
PANAMA CITY 77 90 76 90 / 30 50 50 60
DOTHAN 73 95 72 94 / 20 50 30 50
ALBANY 73 96 73 95 / 20 50 30 50
VALDOSTA 73 95 72 94 / 30 60 30 80
CROSS CITY 75 92 73 92 / 30 60 40 60
APALACHICOLA 78 89 77 88 / 20 50 50 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ012>016-027-112-114-115-127-326-426.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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