429
FXUS62 KTAE 251725
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
125 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- HAZARDOUS HEAT SUBSIDES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
OUTSIDE OF POTENTIALLY ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
- STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY
ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS
IN PLACE NEARLY AREAWIDE.
- THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE MONITORED FOR STORM ACTIVITY
DIVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AMIDST OTHERWISE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF SEASONABLE HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 946 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER APALACHEE
BAY. MEANWHILE, STRATUS AND FOG IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO ERODE OVER
LAND AREAS, AND WE SHOULD SEE THE SUN BREAK OUT IN A COUPLE HOURS.
THE STORMS OVER THE BAY ARE SENDING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NORTHWARD
INTO THE BIG BEND, AND ONCE DAYTIME INSTABILITY KICKS IN, THEN WE
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST CHANCE IS OVER THE BIG BEND INTO SOUTH GEORGIA. SPC HAS
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY IS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE
THE SEABREEZE, A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND SUBSEQUENT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AMIDST A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION IS A
POSSIBILITY WITH DAMAGING GUSTS/DOWNBURSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND POTENTIAL FOR SMALL TO
MEDIUM SIZED HAIL ARE SECONDARY CONCERNS.
RAIN CHANCES INITIALLY FOCUS OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST THIS MORNING, THEN SPREAD INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE FL BIG BEND INTO SW
GA. ACTIVITY THEN DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 105 DEGREES.
THE LATTER PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROP TO THE LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
FEATURES A PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
WESTERN US AND TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH. THIS SET UP PLACES US IN NW
FLOW ALOFT, WHICH RAISES EYEBROWS AT RIDGE-RIDING DISTURBANCES
UPSTREAM THAT MAY SEND MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (MCS)
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TRI- STATE AREA. THE FIRST POTENTIAL MCS
MAY APPROACH US ON THURSDAY AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM/GFS. IF THIS
SCENARIO WERE TO UNFOLD, THEN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AXIS LINGERS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, SO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
IN PLAY FRIDAY-SATURDAY SUCH THAT BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW TO NE. BY SUNDAY, TROUGHING LIFTS TO
HIGHER LATITUDES, THUS ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD BACK OVER US.
THEREFORE, A REVERTING TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES TREND HOTTER WITH DAILY DIURNAL CHANCES
FOR PRIMARILY SEABREEZE-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORMER MAY
PROMPT A RETURN TO HEAT PRODUCTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S, TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES, AND LOWS
IN THE 70S ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TERMINALS, WITH
ONE ONGOING AT VLD. COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE, SO ONLY HAVE
PROB30S FOR TSRA AT THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. STRATUS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT AT ALL BUT ECP. WHERE STRATUS DEVELOPS, CIGS WILL
DROP TO IFR/LIFR SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. IN FOG, MOSTLY EXPECT
IFR/MVFR VSBYS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 13Z BACK TO VFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZES PREVAIL THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THANKS TO PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. THE MAIN MARINE THREATS ARE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, POTENTIAL WATERSPOUTS,
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY RAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE MAIN FIRE CONCERNS ARE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATTER WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TO ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY WETTING RAINS.
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SEABREEZE. WEST TO SW WINDS PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT, BUT HEAT INDICES
ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
NUISANCE OR FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN, POOR-DRAINAGE, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALL AREA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING WELL
BELOW ACTION STAGE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 91 74 90 74 / 50 20 60 20
PANAMA CITY 89 76 89 76 / 40 30 40 40
DOTHAN 93 73 92 73 / 50 20 50 20
ALBANY 94 73 92 74 / 40 30 40 30
VALDOSTA 93 73 91 73 / 60 40 50 20
CROSS CITY 90 74 90 73 / 60 30 30 10
APALACHICOLA 88 77 88 78 / 50 30 50 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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