232
FXUS62 KTAE 252038 CCA
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
433 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER IS IN PLACE NEARLY AREAWIDE.
- THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE MONITORED FOR STORM ACTIVITY
DIVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AMIDST OTHERWISE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF SEASONABLE HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
PERSISTENT RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO
PERSISTENT TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN PUTS US
UNDER PREVAILING W TO NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH HAS "RING OF FIRE"
IMPLICATIONS. THIS IS WHEN PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE 500MB FLOW LEAD
TO CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS (MCSS) THAT RIDGE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AND DIVE
SOUTHEAST. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MAY SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BUT
WOULD ADD TO THE ROBUSTNESS OF ANY STORMS THAT DO MATERIALIZE,
AMPLIFYING THE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PREVAILING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE TO PUSH INLAND EACH DAY WITH THE
SEA BREEZE, FORCING OUR USUAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
ONCE WE GET TO THIS WEEKEND WE'LL SEE THAT RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CONUS SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
AT OR BELOW NORMAL AS THE RIDGE SETS UP OVERHEAD.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TERMINALS, WITH
ONE ONGOING AT VLD. COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE, SO ONLY HAVE
PROB30S FOR TSRA AT THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. STRATUS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT AT ALL BUT ECP. WHERE STRATUS DEVELOPS, CIGS WILL
DROP TO IFR/LIFR SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. IN FOG, MOSTLY EXPECT
IFR/MVFR VSBYS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 13Z BACK TO VFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES PREVAIL THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THANKS TO PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF. THE MAIN MARINE THREATS ARE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG,
GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, POTENTIAL WATERSPOUTS, AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY RAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE MAIN FIRE CONCERNS ARE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND LOCALLY WETTING RAINS. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SEABREEZE.
WEST TO SW WINDS PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HOT, BUT HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
WEEK FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY DOWNPOURS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY
NO RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 73 92 73 92 / 40 70 30 80
PANAMA CITY 76 89 76 89 / 30 50 60 70
DOTHAN 72 93 73 92 / 10 30 20 80
ALBANY 73 93 73 93 / 30 40 20 70
VALDOSTA 71 93 72 93 / 50 60 30 70
CROSS CITY 73 91 73 91 / 30 40 30 60
APALACHICOLA 77 87 77 88 / 40 70 50 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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