610
FXUS62 KTAE 261732
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
132 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
- BROKEN HEAT WAVE KEEPS TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE.
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, AND PERHAPS SMALL TO MEDIUM-SIZED HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
- A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK IN
THE FORM OF HOT AFTERNOONS, WARM NIGHTS, AND DIURNAL SEABREEZE-
DRIVEN CONVECTION. RETURNING HAZARDOUS HEAT PRODUCTS WILL BE IN
PLAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
THE 0Z SPC UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NE GULF WITH ITS AXIS BISECTING THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAIN. AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION, FOR WHICH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT MADE FOR A
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD LAST NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF ERRATIC
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TAP FOR US TODAY THANKS TO THIS
FRONT, ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH, UPPER HEIGHT FALLS, AND THE
SEABREEZE AMIDST A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A
WELL-DEFINED RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE SW US PLACES US
IN DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH MAY ENHANCE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL.
CONVECTION INITIATES OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING,
SPREADS INLAND WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE, THEN NORTH OF THE FL
STATE LINE FROM SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS IN ADDITION
TO FRONTAL/SURFACE TROUGH FORCING. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED, BUT UP TO A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2" WILL MAKE FOR EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS,
CELL MERGERS, AND PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM
ABOUT 98-105 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP THE LOW 70S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
TROUGHING LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING ITS BASE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS PATTERN
SUPPORTS UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. STRONG TO
OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THAT TIME, ESPECIALLY IF ANY MCS MANAGES
TO DIVE IN FROM THE NW. THE FLIP SIDE IS THAT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND "COOLER" AS HIGHS HOVER AROUND 90 DEGREES.
BY SUNDAY, THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD, THUS ALLOWING
THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC SHIFT
SHOULD REVERT US TO MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO START
NEXT WEEK - HOT DAYS (LOW-MID 90S), WARM NIGHTS (LOW 70S), AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEABREEZE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, HEAT PRODUCTS MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED ONCE AGAIN FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
TRI- STATE AREA AS FORECAST HEAT INDICES LOOK TO CREEP BACK UP
TOWARDS ADVISORY LEVELS OF AT LEAST 108 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FROM
ECP/TLH/VLD WHERE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING. MVFR CONDS
UNDERNEATH HEAVIER CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT, IFR/LIFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND
INCLUDE ABY AND VLD WITH MOST LIKELY TIMING BETWEEN 07-14Z.
OFFSHORE THE FL PANHANDLE CONVECTION APPEARS TO GET AN EARLY START
AND ADDED PROB30 AT ECP 12-18Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZES PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY THANKS TO PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. THE MAIN MARINE THREATS ARE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, POTENTIAL WATERSPOUTS,
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY RAIN. WINDS TURN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
THE MAIN FIRE CONCERNS ARE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY ISOLATED DAMAGING
GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY WETTING RAINS.
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS VIA
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SEABREEZE. WEST TO SW WINDS PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THANKS
TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT 3
DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
NUISANCE OR FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN, POOR-DRAINAGE, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. WET WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY THANKS TO THE
PRESENCE OF A LINGERING FRONT AND ATTENDANT DISTURBANCES TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION. THERE IS A WPC MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY LOOK PARTICULARLY MESSY. LOOKING AT 12-HR MRMS QPE SHOWS
THAT MANY LOCATIONS IN SW GA EXPERIENCED 2-3+ INCHES OF RAIN, SO
THOSE AREAS ARE MORE IMMINENTLY VULNERABLE TO (ADDITIONAL)
FLOODING TODAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 90 74 91 74 / 60 20 50 30
PANAMA CITY 90 76 88 76 / 50 40 50 50
DOTHAN 91 73 90 73 / 60 30 60 30
ALBANY 92 73 91 73 / 40 20 60 30
VALDOSTA 91 73 92 73 / 70 20 40 10
CROSS CITY 90 73 91 74 / 40 10 40 20
APALACHICOLA 87 77 88 77 / 50 30 40 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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