024
FXUS62 KTAE 270506
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
106 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE.
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, AND PERHAPS SMALL TO MEDIUM-SIZED HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
- A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK IN
THE FORM OF HOT AFTERNOONS, WARM NIGHTS, AND DIURNAL SEABREEZE-
DRIVEN CONVECTION. RETURNING HAZARDOUS HEAT PRODUCTS WILL BE IN
PLAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, AND NO MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY.
PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE 500MB FLOW LOOK TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH, FORCING WEATHER EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, IN ADDITION
TO FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A FRONTAL FEATURE FINALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. ON SUNDAY, RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN PLACED OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CONUS LOOKS TO SLIDE EAST OVER EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING OUR RAIN CHANCES DOWN SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. WE'LL LOOK TO END AUGUST/START SEPTEMBER
UNDER INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT
A RETURN TO UPPER 90S. WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THIS MAY
IMPACT HEAT PRODUCT ISSUANCE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
A SWATH OF IFR/LIFR FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS GA AND AL SITES FOR A
FEW HOURS PRIOR TO AND AROUND SUNRISE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY PERIODICALLY AFFECT
TERMINALS AT TIMES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZES PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY THANKS TO PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THE
MAIN MARINE THREATS ARE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG, GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, POTENTIAL WATERSPOUTS, AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY RAIN. WINDS TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
THE MAIN FIRE CONCERNS ARE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY ISOLATED DAMAGING
GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY WETTING RAINS.
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS VIA
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SEABREEZE. WEST TO SW WINDS PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THANKS
TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT 3
DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
WEEK FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY DOWNPOURS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY
NO RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 73 91 72 91 / 30 80 20 70
PANAMA CITY 75 88 74 89 / 60 70 40 60
DOTHAN 72 90 72 91 / 30 70 20 40
ALBANY 72 91 72 91 / 30 70 40 50
VALDOSTA 72 92 71 92 / 20 70 40 70
CROSS CITY 73 91 72 92 / 40 60 20 80
APALACHICOLA 76 87 76 87 / 60 70 40 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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