834
FXUS62 KTAE 272315
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
715 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
- DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN,
AND PERHAPS SMALL TO MEDIUM-SIZED HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK IN THE
FORM OF HOT AFTERNOONS, WARM NIGHTS, AND DIURNAL SEABREEZE-
DRIVEN CONVECTION. RETURNING HAZARDOUS HEAT PRODUCTS WILL BE IN
PLAY.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY.
PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE 500MB FLOW LOOK TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH, FORCING WEATHER EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, IN ADDITION
TO FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A FRONTAL FEATURE FINALLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ON SUNDAY, RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN PLACED OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS LOOKS TO SLIDE EAST OVER EASTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL BRING OUR RAIN CHANCES DOWN SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. WE'LL LOOK TO END AUGUST/START
SEPTEMBER UNDER INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SOME GUIDANCE
HINTING AT A RETURN TO UPPER 90S. WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW
THIS MAY IMPACT HEAT PRODUCT ISSUANCE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
SHRA IS ENDING AT THE TERMINALS, AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOME CIGS POSSIBLY INTO IFR TERRITORY,
ESPECIALLY IF FOG DEVELOPS. IF FOG DEVELOPS, VSBYS WOULD MOSTLY BE
MVFR. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY, BEGINNING NEAR ECP IN THE MORNING, THEN SPREADING
NE TO THE OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY THANKS TO PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THE
MAIN MARINE THREATS ARE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG, GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, POTENTIAL WATERSPOUTS, AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY RAIN. WINDS TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
WEEKEND.
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, IT WILL
ENTER AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
WESTWARD. TS DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IMPACTS TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF ARE NOT EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
THE MAIN FIRE CONCERNS ARE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY WETTING RAINS. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
TODAY AND TOMORROW. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS VIA OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SEABREEZE. TEMPERATURES
TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THANKS TO DECENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. POOR
AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS ARE ALSO ON TAP FOR PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
WEEK FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY DOWNPOURS, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO RIVERINE
FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 73 90 72 / 80 30 80 50
PANAMA CITY 89 75 87 74 / 70 70 80 50
DOTHAN 92 72 88 71 / 80 50 50 40
ALBANY 93 72 89 72 / 80 40 70 40
VALDOSTA 92 72 90 71 / 70 20 70 40
CROSS CITY 90 73 90 72 / 70 50 70 40
APALACHICOLA 87 76 86 75 / 70 60 70 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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