305
FXUS62 KTAE 280455
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1255 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN,
AND PERHAPS SMALL TO MEDIUM-SIZED HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK IN THE
FORM OF HOT AFTERNOONS, WARM NIGHTS, AND DIURNAL SEABREEZE-
DRIVEN CONVECTION. RETURNING HAZARDOUS HEAT PRODUCTS WILL BE IN
PLAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 844 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WAS TO UPDATE THE RAIN
CHANCES TO MATCH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. OVERALL, JUST LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH
MORE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THE OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR INLAND AREAS TONIGHT
GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY.
PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE 500MB FLOW LOOK TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH, FORCING WEATHER EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, IN ADDITION
TO FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A FRONTAL FEATURE FINALLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ON SUNDAY, RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN PLACED OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS LOOKS TO SLIDE EAST OVER EASTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL BRING OUR RAIN CHANCES DOWN SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. WE'LL LOOK TO END AUGUST/START
SEPTEMBER UNDER INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SOME GUIDANCE
HINTING AT A RETURN TO UPPER 90S. WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW
THIS MAY IMPACT HEAT PRODUCT ISSUANCE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING WITH
SOME CIGS POSSIBLY INTO IFR TERRITORY, ESPECIALLY IF FOG DEVELOPS.
IF FOG DEVELOPS, VSBYS WOULD MOSTLY BE MVFR. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY
OF WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA IS EXPECTED TODAY, BEGINNING
NEAR ECP THIS MORNING, THEN SPREADING NE TO THE OTHER TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z. WINDS
GENERALLY VARIABLE DIRECTION AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY THANKS TO PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THE
MAIN MARINE THREATS ARE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG, GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, POTENTIAL WATERSPOUTS, AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY RAIN. WINDS TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
WEEKEND.
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, IT WILL
ENTER AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
WESTWARD. TS DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IMPACTS TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF ARE NOT EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
THE MAIN FIRE CONCERNS ARE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY WETTING RAINS. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
TODAY AND TOMORROW. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS VIA OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SEABREEZE. TEMPERATURES
TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THANKS TO DECENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. POOR
AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS ARE ALSO ON TAP FOR PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
WEEK FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY DOWNPOURS, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO RIVERINE
FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 90 72 89 72 / 80 50 70 30
PANAMA CITY 87 74 87 74 / 80 50 70 40
DOTHAN 88 71 89 71 / 50 40 60 20
ALBANY 89 72 89 72 / 70 40 40 20
VALDOSTA 90 71 90 72 / 70 40 70 30
CROSS CITY 90 72 91 73 / 70 40 80 40
APALACHICOLA 86 75 86 76 / 70 60 70 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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