996
FXUS62 KTAE 280618
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
218 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK WITH HOT AFTERNOONS, WARM NIGHTS, AND DIURNAL SEABREEZE-
DRIVEN CONVECTION. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR 108F BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WEAK VORT MAXES. A TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 2.2-2.4
INCHES, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF 2.13 INCHES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HEATING WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL PROMOTE SLOW MOVING STORMS CAPABLE
OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOISTURE
RICH ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND STORMS AROUND THE AREA. RAIN
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER LAND WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WEAK TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD AND REPLACE THE WEAK
TROUGHING, RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID 90S
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REACH THE LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108F ONCE AGAIN BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING WITH
SOME CIGS POSSIBLY INTO IFR TERRITORY, ESPECIALLY IF FOG DEVELOPS.
IF FOG DEVELOPS, VSBYS WOULD MOSTLY BE MVFR. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY
OF WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA IS EXPECTED TODAY, BEGINNING
NEAR ECP THIS MORNING, THEN SPREADING NE TO THE OTHER TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z. WINDS
GENERALLY VARIABLE DIRECTION AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL TODAY THANKS TO PERSISTENT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, WATERSPOUTS, AND REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY RAIN.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
LIGHT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY
WETTING RAINS. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
SATURDAY. POOR AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS ARE ALSO ON TAP FOR PARTS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THERE
ARE CURRENTLY NO RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS. SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 90 72 89 72 / 80 50 70 30
PANAMA CITY 87 74 87 74 / 80 50 70 40
DOTHAN 88 71 89 71 / 50 40 60 20
ALBANY 89 72 89 72 / 70 40 40 20
VALDOSTA 90 71 90 72 / 70 40 70 30
CROSS CITY 90 72 91 73 / 70 40 80 40
APALACHICOLA 86 75 86 76 / 70 60 70 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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