091
FXUS62 KTAE 281744
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
144 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK WITH HOT AFTERNOONS, WARM NIGHTS, AND DIURNAL SEABREEZE-
DRIVEN CONVECTION. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR 108F BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WEAK VORT MAXES. A TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 2.2-2.4
INCHES, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF 2.13 INCHES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HEATING WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL PROMOTE SLOW MOVING STORMS CAPABLE
OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOISTURE
RICH ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND STORMS AROUND THE AREA. RAIN
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER LAND WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WEAK TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD AND REPLACE THE WEAK
TROUGHING, RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID 90S
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REACH THE LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108F ONCE AGAIN BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
POTENTIALLY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND IF THEY
MOVE OVER A TAF SITE THEY COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO TONIGHT AS SHOWERS/STORMS
WANE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS OF DHN, VLD, ABY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL TODAY THANKS TO PERSISTENT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, WATERSPOUTS, AND REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY RAIN.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
LIGHT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY
WETTING RAINS. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
SATURDAY. POOR AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS ARE ALSO ON TAP FOR PARTS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THERE
ARE CURRENTLY NO RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS. SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 86 72 91 / 70 80 20 60
PANAMA CITY 73 85 74 88 / 70 80 50 70
DOTHAN 71 86 71 90 / 30 50 20 50
ALBANY 71 86 71 91 / 40 70 40 50
VALDOSTA 71 88 71 93 / 50 70 40 70
CROSS CITY 72 90 73 92 / 30 80 30 80
APALACHICOLA 75 85 76 87 / 70 90 50 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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