120
FXUS62 KTAE 281919
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
319 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- ELEVATED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. STORMS WILL COME WITH HEAVY ENOUGH RAIN TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK WITH HOT AFTERNOONS AND WARM NIGHTS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 108F BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING.
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION IS VERY MOIST THIS AFTERNOON. PW
VALUES ARE RUNNING IN THE 2.2- TO 2.4-INCH RANGE, WHICH IS WELL
IN EXCESS OF 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES IN THE SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS WEEK OF THE YEAR. MEANWHILE, OUR REGION IS
SQUARELY UNDERNEATH A WEAK TROUGH BETWEEN 500 MB SUBTROPICAL
HIGHS NEAR NEW MEXICO AND BERMUDA. SLOW-MOVING SWATHS OF HEAVY
RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED DOWNWIND OF THE TROUGH. EARLIER THIS MORNING,
SUCH A SWATH WAS POINTED OFF THE GULF INTO THE NORTHERN NATURE
COAST. ANOTHER BAND IS NOW FORMING FROM NEAR VALDOSTA OVER TO THE
GEORGIA COAST. THIS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AS THIS BAND SLOWLY DEVELOPS NORTH ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND TOWARD THE U.S. 82 CORRIDOR.
IN ADDITION, ASCAT IMAGERY, SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND SURFACE OBS
SHOW A WEAK CLOSED SURFACE LOW SLOWLY SPINNING OFF THE PANHANDLE
COAST. (ASCAT SHOWED ONLY 10-15 KNOT WINDS.) THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND/OR OPEN UP INTO AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS SUCH, THE 1000-700 MB FLOW OVER
OUR REGION IS NOW TRANSITIONING FROM WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
MORNING TO WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY BY TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY, THIS FLOW
DIRECTION WILL CAUSE THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF TO AIM
AND LOOSELY TRAIN AT THE FORGOTTEN AND EMERALD COASTS, SO THIS IS
WHERE EXCESSIVE RAIN IS THE GREATER CONCERN. DURING AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT, WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW IS MOST FAVORABLE FOR
RAIN OVER THE INLAND EASTERN PANHANDLE AND LOWER ALABAMA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL STICK AROUND OFF THE PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY, BRINGING WEAK 1000-700 MB SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, MEANING ABUNDANT MORNING CONVECTION ALONG
THE FORGOTTEN AND EMERALD COASTS, AND THEN PLENTY OF AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE CONVECTION OVER THE INLAND PANHANDLE AND LOWER ALABAMA.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH CURRENTLY
OVER NEW MEXICO WILL MIGRATE EAST. STARTING TUESDAY, THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER OUR REGION. MOST IMPORTANTLY,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BENEATH THIS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. BY
MIDWEEK, INLAND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RUN AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH OF ABOUT 91 DEGREES. PARTS
OF THE AREA COULD EXCEED OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, WHICH IS A
HEAT INDEX OF 108F OR HIGHER. GIVEN FORECAST INLAND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S FROM WED-FRI, DEWPOINTS WOULD NEED TO
EXCEED 75F TO HIT THAT THRESHOLD. THIS IS EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS-BASED MOS GUIDANCE FOR TLH. IN CONTRAST, IT IS
SHOWN AS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY IN ENSEMBLE PLUME GUIDANCE. THERE
HAVE BEEN ONLY 2 HEAT ADVISORIES ISSUED BY OUR OFFICE DURING THE
MONTH OF SEPTEMBER IN THE LAST 2 DECADES, SO THAT IS A RARE
OCCURRENCE BY SEPTEMBER. REGARDLESS OF THIS NUANCE, THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER WILL FEATURE A FULL RETURN OF SUMMER HEAT.
WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THE LOSS OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL LEAD TO A
REDUCTION IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. NONETHELESS, MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ADEQUATE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION, WITH PW VALUES
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK HOVERING IN THE 1.7-2.0 INCH RANGE
OVER FLORIDA, AND IN THE 1.6-1.9 INCH RANGE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COUNTIES. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE OVER OUR SEABREEZE- FAVORED FLORIDA
COUNTIES, WHILE THE LOWEST POPS WILL BE FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE
U.S. 82 CORRIDOR, DUE TO SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE, LACK OF SEABREEZE
FOCUS, AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER HIGH.
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH, LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME EASTERLY. THIS WILL START TO PUSH THE WEAK LOW OR
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WESTWARD, OUT OF AND AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLE GULF WATERS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
POTENTIALLY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND IF THEY
MOVE OVER A TAF SITE THEY COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO TONIGHT AS SHOWERS/STORMS
WANE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS OF DHN, VLD, ABY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
A WEAK LOW CENTER OFFSHORE THE WESTERN PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN START TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
IN RESPONSE, A TURN TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST BREEZES IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WATERS THIS EVENING, CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS GEORGIA AND ALABAMA FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING PREVAILING GENTLE EASTERLIES. OTHERWISE,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, BRINGING SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS. STORM COVERAGE OVER THE GULF
WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY FOR THE
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT, SATURDAY WILL FEATURE ENOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN TO SUPPORT ONLY
POOR AFTERNOON DISPERSION OVER THE BIG BEND REGION. OF COURSE,
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SUDDEN STRONG GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND WETTING RAINS. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND HOTTER AND HOTTER EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
REACHING LEVELS THAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE TWO MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE NEAR THE U.S. 82
CORRIDOR IN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON, THEN FOR COMMUNITIES ALONG THE
FORGOTTEN AND EMERALD COASTS ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS IS
VERY MOIST, AND STORM MOTION IS SLOW. THEREFORE, FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE DRIVEN BY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES BENEATH STRONGER AND
SLOW-MOVING STORMS, OR AREAS WHERE STORM TRAINING OCCURS.
THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME A BIT LESS MOIST OVER THE COURSE OF
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SO THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE WITH
MERELY SHORT-LIVED NUISANCE-TYPE FLOODING BENEATH THE CORE OF
STRONGER STORMS.
DESPITE RECENT RAINS, RIVERS ARE RUNNING SOMEWHAT LOW. RIVERS
WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 88 72 93 / 50 50 40 70
PANAMA CITY 73 86 74 89 / 60 70 40 80
DOTHAN 71 88 72 91 / 20 60 20 50
ALBANY 72 88 72 92 / 50 40 30 50
VALDOSTA 71 89 72 93 / 40 60 50 60
CROSS CITY 73 92 73 93 / 20 70 40 80
APALACHICOLA 75 86 76 88 / 60 80 60 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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