621
FXUS62 KTAE 291055
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
655 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- ELEVATED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. STORMS WILL COME WITH HEAVY ENOUGH RAIN TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK WITH HOT AFTERNOONS AND WARM NIGHTS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 108F BY THE MIDDLE TO END
OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WEAK VORT MAXES. A TROPICAL
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 2.1-2.2 INCHES, WHICH IS NEAR TO ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE VALUE OF 2.13 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DAYTIME HEATING WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL
PROMOTE SLOW MOVING STORMS AGAIN TODAY CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT. THE HEAVIEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FARTHER INLAND. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER AND STORMS AROUND THE AREA. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WEAK TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH ABUNDANT MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FORGOTTEN AND EMERALD COASTS, AND THEN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INLAND PANHANDLE AND LOWER ALABAMA.
HEADING INTO THE WORKWEEK, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BUILD AND REPLACE THE WEAK TROUGHING, RESULTING IN LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO WARM
BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 108F ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. THERE HAVE
BEEN ONLY 2 HEAT ADVISORIES ISSUED BY OUR OFFICE DURING THE MONTH
OF SEPTEMBER IN THE LAST 2 DECADES, SO THAT WOULD BE A RARE
OCCURRENCE IF IT OCCURS. REGARDLESS OF THIS NUANCE, THE FIRST WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER WILL FEATURE A FULL RETURN OF SUMMER HEAT.
THE WARMER AIR ALOFT FROM THE RIDGING AND THE LOSS OF SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT WILL LEAD TO A REDUCTION IN RAIN CHANCES. NONETHELESS,
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ADEQUATE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
HOVERING IN THE 1.7-2.0 INCH RANGE OVER FLORIDA, AND IN THE
1.6-1.9 INCH RANGE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA COUNTIES. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE OVER OUR SEABREEZE- FAVORED FLORIDA COUNTIES, WHILE THE
LOWEST CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE U.S. 82 CORRIDOR,
DUE TO SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE, LACK OF SEABREEZE FOCUS, AND CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER HIGH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN BRIEF IFR/LIFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
DHN, VLD, ABY, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BKN CIGS AMONGST THE LOW
CLOUDS. TODAY, WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE GULF WILL FORCE
ADDITIONAL SHRA AND TSRA THAT WILL MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MOST PREVALENT AT TLH, ECP, AND VLD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST TODAY AROUND 5-10 KTS, THEN SHIFTING EASTERLY
TONIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS POINT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
A WEAK LOW CENTER OFFSHORE THE WESTERN PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH TODAY, THEN START TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
IN RESPONSE, GENTLE SOUTHEAST BREEZES IS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING PREVAILING GENTLE
EASTERLIES. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED,
BRINGING SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS.
STORM COVERAGE OVER THE GULF WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY FOR THE
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THROUGH MONDAY. IN
FACT, TODAY WILL FEATURE ENOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN TO SUPPORT ONLY
POOR AFTERNOON DISPERSION OVER THE BIG BEND REGION. OF COURSE,
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SUDDEN STRONG GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND WETTING RAINS. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND HOTTER AND HOTTER EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
REACHING LEVELS THAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.
THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE NEAR COMMUNITIES ALONG THE
FORGOTTEN AND EMERALD COASTS TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THE
AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST, AND STORM MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW.
THEREFORE, FLASH FLOODING WILL BE DRIVEN BY INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES BENEATH STRONGER AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS, OR AREAS WHERE
STORM TRAINING OCCURS.
THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME A BIT LESS MOIST OVER THE COURSE OF SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, SO THE MAIN CONCERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE WITH MERELY SHORT-
LIVED NUISANCE-TYPE FLOODING BENEATH THE CORE OF STRONGER STORMS.
DESPITE RECENT RAINS, RIVERS ARE RUNNING SOMEWHAT LOW. RIVERS WILL
REMAIN WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 87 73 92 73 / 60 10 50 20
PANAMA CITY 86 74 89 75 / 70 30 70 10
DOTHAN 88 71 91 72 / 40 10 50 10
ALBANY 87 72 92 73 / 40 10 30 10
VALDOSTA 87 72 92 72 / 50 20 50 20
CROSS CITY 91 73 93 73 / 60 30 70 30
APALACHICOLA 85 76 88 77 / 80 40 60 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page