266
FXUS62 KTAE 300043
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
843 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING, MAINLY FOR PANHANDLE COASTAL COMMUNITIES, AND THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 3-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER INLAND AREAS. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 107F AROUND THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAVE BEGUN TO CROSS
THE SUWANNEE RIVER, MOVING WEST. HOWEVER, THESE STORMS ARE
ENTERING A MUCH MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT THANKS TO CLOUD COVER FROM
EARLIER TODAY. THUS, THESE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AS THEY ENTER OUR
AREA. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE STORMS COULD STILL LEAD TO
OCCASIONAL 20-30 MPH WIND GUSTS AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN
BIG BEND. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK, AND NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY ARE HOLDING DOWN SOLAR INSOLATION AND
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD BE NORTH OF AN
ENTERPRISE TO BLAKELY TO DAWSON LINE, WHERE SOME SUNSHINE HAS BEEN
ABLE TO WARM UP THE AIR MASS. AT 2 PM EDT, EUFAULA WAS 87 DEGREES
AND WAS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE IN OR ADJACENT TO OUR SERVICE
AREA.
AFTER SUNSET, CONVECTION STEMMING FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MAY
CROSS WEST OVER THE SUWANNEE, POSSIBLY GETTING TO TLH AFTER 11 PM
EDT, IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH.
ON SUNDAY, THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF SOUTH OF THE
FLORABAMA LINE WILL MOVE FURTHER WEST-SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM OUR
REGION, AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN MORE STRONGLY FROM
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO ALABAMA. IN
RESPONSE, OUR LOW- MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SPEND SUNDAY SLOWLY BACKING
FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AT FIRST WILL
FAVOR MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST, AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE OVER THE INLAND PANHANDLE. DESPITE
THE MOIST AIR MASS, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STILL BE THICK ON
SUNDAY, LIMITING FULL SUNSHINE AND AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND
AMOUNTING TO AN INHIBITOR TO AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT.
BY SUNDAY EVENING AS GENERAL LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
EASTERLY, WE WILL BE PRONE TO THE POST-SUNSET ARRIVAL OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PUSHING WEST OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE,
MAINLY EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
A 500 MB HEAT WAVE HIGH THAT IS OVER NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MIGRATE EAST TO THE OZARKS BY SUNDAY NIGHT,
SPANNING OUT FROM THERE AS A RIDGE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND THE CAROLINAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ANCHOR A LATE SEASON HEAT
WAVE TO OUR NORTH, WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HEAT WAVE
OVERSPREADING OUR REGION.
FROM ABOUT WED-FRI, TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON,
AMOUNTING TO VALUES ABOUT 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. THE AIR MASS
AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE FROM THE NORTH, THE AIR MASS WILL DRY
SLIGHTLY OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PW) RANGING FROM ABOUT 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK.
FURTHER SOUTH OVER FLORIDA, THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN A A LITTLE
MOISTER, IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE. ALL OF THESE VALUES ARE
ADEQUATE FOR SUPPORTING DEEP, MOIST AIR MASS CONVECTION. HIGHEST
POPS EACH AFTERNOON WILL CONSISTENTLY BE FURTHER SOUTH OVER OUR
FLORIDA COUNTIES, WITH ITS SLIGHTLY MOISTER AIR MASS, FURTHER
PROXIMITY FROM THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH, PLUS THE EVER-
PRESENT SEABREEZE TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE LIFT. IN ADDITION, DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT POST- SUNSET CONVECTION EAST OF THE
APALACHICOLA AND FLINT ON A FEW EVENINGS, STEMMING ULTIMATELY
FROM THE EVENING ARRIVAL OF ATLANTIC SEABREEZE ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
A FEW SHRA ARE ONGOING NEAR DHN. OTHERWISE, WE'RE WATCHING TSRA
WELL EAST OF VLD THAT MAY TRY TO MOVE IN DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS MAY APPROACH TLH LATER IN THE EVENING, AND PROB30S ARE
IN PLACE FOR BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING, BUT TSRA SHOULD BE
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER WEST. OVERNIGHT, MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST, IMPACTING ABY, VLD, AND POSSIBLY TLH NEAR
SUNRISE. SOME LIFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ABY AND
VLD, WHERE TEMPOS HAVE BEEN ADDED. SHRA/TSRA WILL HAVE A LATER
START ON SUNDAY, NEAR ECP EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN OTHER SITES
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DHN MAY AVOID THE SHRA/TSRA, BUT ALL OTHER
SITES HAVE PROB30S FOR TSRA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
PREVAILING WINDS WILL TURN FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY OVER THE
COURSE OF SUNDAY, AS A WEAK LOW CENTER SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA
EXITS WEST, AND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CAROLINAS
TO ALABAMA. GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL THEN PREVAIL FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, BRIEFLY INCREASING EACH NIGHT STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT DURING THE NOCTURNAL SURGE THAT IS COMMON IN
EASTERLY FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE COMING WORK
WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE GREATEST
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL WILL FAVOR OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA DISTRICTS.
A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. OF COURSE, STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF SUDDEN STRONG GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND WETTING RAINS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
SUNDAY. UNTIL IT FULLY DIMINISHES, THE MAIN TARGET AREA FOR AN
ISOLATED INSTANCE OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE PANHANDLE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER SUNDAY MORNING, HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS WILL TAPER OFF TO A
MORE SUMMER-TYPICAL THREAT OF SHORT-LIVED NUISANCE RUNOFF ISSUES
BENEATH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, DUE TO DAILY RECURRENCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS.
NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 87 73 93 74 / 70 20 50 40
PANAMA CITY 86 74 90 75 / 70 30 60 30
DOTHAN 88 71 92 73 / 50 30 30 20
ALBANY 87 72 92 73 / 50 10 30 20
VALDOSTA 87 72 92 72 / 50 20 50 30
CROSS CITY 91 73 93 73 / 50 50 80 40
APALACHICOLA 85 77 87 77 / 70 50 60 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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