942
FXUS62 KTAE 301405
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1005 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 3-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER INLAND AREAS. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 107F FROM THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BE ACROSS FLORIDA
WITH LOWER CHANCES FARTHER NORTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
NO UPDATES TO THE FOREACST THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
FOR TODAY, THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF SOUTHWEST OF OUR
AREA WILL MOVE FURTHER WEST-SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM OUR REGION. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ACROSS
GEORGIA AND INTO ALABAMA. IN RESPONSE, OUR LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
SLOWLY BACK FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY. THIS PATTERN WILL
FAVOR MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE OVER THE INLAND PANHANDLE.
BY THIS EVENING, EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR THE ARRIVAL OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING WESTWARD FROM THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE, MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND
FLINT RIVERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOWER 90S TODAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EAST TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEK BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ANCHOR A
LATE SEASON HEAT WAVE TO OUR NORTH, WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE HEAT WAVE OVERSPREADING OUR REGION. BY MID TO LATE WEEK,
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON, AMOUNTING TO VALUES ABOUT 4-7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
IN THIS SUMMER PATTERN, THE HIGHEST SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE, FURTHER PROXIMITY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE NORTH, AND THE PRESENCE OF THE SEABREEZE. IN
ADDITION, DEEP EASTERLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT POST-SUNSET CONVECTION
EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS ON A FEW EVENINGS,
STEMMING ULTIMATELY FROM THE EVENING ARRIVAL OF ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
IFR/LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL IMPACT ABY AND VLD NEAR SUNRISE;
EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MORNING, WITH FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
IN THE FORECAST POSSIBLE IN TERMS OF THE RESTRICTIONS AND TIMING.
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN ACTIVITY AT ABY AND DHN, OTHERWISE ALL OTHER SITES
HAVE PROB30S FOR TSRA. GUIDANCE HAS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ABY AND VLD LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS EASTERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
EASTERLY PREVAILING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL EXIT WESTWARD, AND A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE CAROLINAS TO ALABAMA.
GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, BRIEFLY INCREASING EACH NIGHT DURING THE NOCTURNAL SURGE
THAT IS COMMON IN EASTERLY FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE COMING
WORK WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE GREATEST
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL WILL FAVOR OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
DISTRICTS. A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. OF
COURSE, STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SUDDEN STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND WETTING RAINS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
A TYPICAL SUMMER THREAT OF SHORT-LIVED RUNOFF ISSUES BENEATH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO
RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 73 92 73 / 70 30 50 40
PANAMA CITY 90 75 90 75 / 60 20 70 20
DOTHAN 92 72 93 73 / 20 20 30 20
ALBANY 92 73 92 73 / 20 10 30 10
VALDOSTA 92 72 92 72 / 50 20 50 10
CROSS CITY 92 73 92 73 / 80 50 70 20
APALACHICOLA 87 77 87 77 / 60 40 60 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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