411
FXUS62 KTAE 140009
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
809 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
TODAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FLORIDA COUNTIES, WITH DIMINISHING
COVERAGE THIS EVENING.
- A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID-WEEK, LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY LOW
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- MODERATE TO LOCALLY DANGEROUS HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY
REACHING 100-108 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA COUNTIES.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE ATLANTIC, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WELL AS HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. CONTINUES TO BE
DOMINATED BY A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY
DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WAS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS NOW PUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST, ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND
EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE AND BRINGS A DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION, PARTICULARLY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA COUNTIES
WHERE PWATS REMAIN ELEVATED. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WITH SUNSET.
TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID 70S ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOWER 70S FOR INLAND GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN INLAND AREAS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA, AS LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PERSIST
OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT
CONDITIONS WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES. THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WILL ESTABLISH A NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS BY MID-WEEK, WHICH IS IN
THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S, THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGING FROM 100-106 DEGREES. SOME COASTAL FLORIDA LOCATIONS
COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH 107-108 DEGREES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DOMINANT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH BRINGS DRY
AND HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK, WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
PERSIST, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW.
BY FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED.
AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY AND THEN SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT TO RELINQUISH THE
HOLD OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA AND PROVIDE A MOISTURE
CHANNEL, LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ON FRIDAY, PRIMARILY
FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
THE RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING BACK MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG LOOKS TO IMPACT MOST IF NOT
ALL AREA TERMINALS. TERMINALS ECP/TLH/VLD HAVE THE BEST
PROBABILITY OF SEEING MVFR VSBYS. WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNRISE
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. MINIMAL
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE FL BIG BEND AREA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE IN THE CENTRAL GULF.
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE GULF WATERS WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS
GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION INTO MID WEEK WHILE STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CLOCK WINDS TO NORTHEASTERLY
WHILE RATCHETING UP WINDS AND SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MODERATE WINDS TUESDAY WILL BECOME FRESH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS NOW A MEDIUM CHANCE OF MEETING OR EXCEEDING
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US TODAY AND MONDAY AND
STRENGTHEN INTO MID WEEK. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL
ACT TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES MUCH OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL
REACH THE LOW TO MID 100S WITH A LOW CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 107F IN
COASTAL LOCATIONS. TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY LEADING TO
POCKETS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS THROUGH WIREGRASS REGION SOUTH INTO THE
FLORIDA DISTRICTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 96 75 95 / 10 0 0 10
PANAMA CITY 77 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 10
DOTHAN 73 95 73 94 / 10 0 0 0
ALBANY 73 95 73 94 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 74 95 73 93 / 0 0 0 10
CROSS CITY 75 94 74 93 / 10 30 10 30
APALACHICOLA 77 91 77 90 / 10 30 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...MERRIFIELD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page