548
FXUS62 KTAE 141419
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1019 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
- MODERATE TO LOCALLY DANGEROUS HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY REACHING
100-108 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA COUNTIES.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WELL AS HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING. SATELLITE-DERIVED PW
IMAGERY SHOWS 1.5+ INCH VALUES MAINLY OVER DIXIE COUNTY AND
CLINGING TO THE FORGOTTEN AND EMERALD COASTS. THEREFORE, AFTERNOON
STORMS WILL MAINLY FAVOR THE SE BIG BEND. THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INHIBIT SEABREEZE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FORGOTTEN AND
EMERALD COASTS DUE TO DIFFICULTY OF GETTING AN ESTABLISHED OR
SUSTAINED SEABREEZE.
DRIER PWS IN THE 1.2-1.4 INCH RANGE ARE NOSING SOUTH THROUGH SW
GA TOWARD TLH, SO THAT WILL CERTAINLY AMOUNT TO CONVECTIVE
SHUTDOWN IN THOSE AREAS. INLAND OF ANY BEACHFRONT SEABREEZE,
ENOUGH MIXING TODAY COULD EVEN PUSH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH
MIDWEEK, WITH SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENING AND DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS LEADING TO PWATS DROPPING TO 1.3-1.5" (A LITTLE HIGHER NEAR
THE COAST). RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SHOVED TO THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE THEN GENERALLY OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME, SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF CLOCKING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO DRIER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. IN FACT, PWATS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
UNDER AN INCH AND LITTLE, IF ANY, RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. THEREFORE,
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE INLAND AREAS.
THE RIDGE RETREATS WESTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
ROUNDS THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING WEST AND INTO THE
GULF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS RETURNING. WITH
THIS, RAIN CHANCES START TO RETURN FIRST ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
FRIDAY THEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST OF THE PERIOD. MID TO
UPPER 90S ARE FORECAST AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN BUT ALSO HELP TO
LOWER THE DEWPOINTS TOWARDS THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HEAT INDICES
WILL GENERALLY BE 100-107F. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE
NEAR THE COAST SO HEAT INDICES MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED 107F LOCALLY IN
THESE AREAS. AS THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW KICKS IN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AND AS THE RIDGE MOVES WESTWARD, HIGHS WILL BE NOT AS HOT WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES BY,
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LITTLE BIT
OF PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AROUND VLD, AND THIS MAY LAST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY LIGHT N-NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, EXCEPT AT ECP WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS
MORE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. BY TUESDAY,
SURFACE RIDGING WILL STRETCH THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF, CAUSING OUR WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY AND STRENGTHEN A
BIT. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DRIER AIR THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL REDUCE
COVERAGE OF STORMS UNTIL AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATING THE NORTHERN GULF
BRINGS BETTER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN INTO MID
WEEK. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL ACT TO REDUCE RAIN
CHANCES MUCH OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 100S WITH A LOW CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 107F IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY LEADING TO POCKETS OF HIGH
DISPERSIONS THROUGH THE WIREGRASS REGION SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA
DISTRICTS INTO WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
NO FLASH OR RIVERINE FLOODING EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 96 75 95 73 / 0 0 10 0
PANAMA CITY 93 77 94 75 / 10 0 20 0
DOTHAN 95 73 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 96 73 95 70 / 0 0 10 0
VALDOSTA 95 73 93 71 / 0 0 10 0
CROSS CITY 94 74 93 74 / 30 20 40 0
APALACHICOLA 91 77 90 77 / 20 10 20 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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