423
FXUS62 KTAE 151419
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1019 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- MODERATE TO LOCALLY DANGEROUS HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY REACHING 100-107
DEGREES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA COUNTIES.
- STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES IS EXPECTED
STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK, SO NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS BEGINNING
TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NORTHEAST US
COAST. UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR
AND AN UPTICK IN BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PROGGED TO REACH THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG I-75. BEFORE THIS, TODAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S YIELDING HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-107 (HIGHER END OF RANGE
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE). ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
EASTERN BIG BEND.
THE DRY AIR WILL PUSH PWATS DOWN TOWARDS AN INCH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHILE BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS PICK UP WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. DEWPOINTS MAY
ACTUALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WIREGRASS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHILE HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID
60S THROUGH THE WIREGRASS WHICH IS A WELCOME CHANGE, ALBEIT BRIEF,
FROM THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-10. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED AND
GENERALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND FLORIDA BIG BEND.
AN UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE BAHAMAS THURSDAY MOVING WESTWARD INTO
THE NORTHEAST GULF FRIDAY, THEN THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW TO
HANDLE THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND (EURO KEEPS
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEREAS THE GFS
CONTINUES ITS TREK WESTWARD TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER). REGARDLESS, THE UPPER HIGH RETREATS WESTWARD RELINQUISHING
THE HOLD ON DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AS PWATS GRADUALLY WORK
TOWARDS 2 INCHES THIS WEEKEND. AS SUCH, RAIN CHANCES MAKE A
RETURN FIRST SOUTH OF I-10 FRIDAY THEN BACK INTO THE ENTIRETY OF
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AS THE SUBSIDENCE EXITS STAGE LEFT AND THE
UPPER LOW, CLOUDS, AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ENVELOPE THE AREA,
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING MAY SNEAK INTO VLD WITH MVFR VSBYS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE, WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE E/NE LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT. ECP MAY
STILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE SEA BREEZE WHERE WINDS TURN
MORE SE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN BACK TO THE NE THIS EVENING. A
QUICK MOVING BROKEN BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE FROM VLD TO TLH TO
ECP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND PROB30S ARE IN PLACE FOR
EACH SITE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO OUR NORTH. INITIAL LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS BECOME MODERATE TO
STRONG BEGINNING THIS EVENING AS EASTERLY SURGES DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A REPRIEVE IN THE
STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
WITH STRONG WINDS RETURNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT OF THE STRONGER WINDS, SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4
TO 6 FEET, WITH OCCASIONAL 8 FEET IN OFFSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST, TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
BECOME EASTERLY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH TODAY AND 15-20 MPH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DISPERSION VALUES WILL INCREASE TO HIGH FOR
THE FLORIDA AND ALABAMA WIREGRASS REGIONS, AND THE ANF NEAR AND
ALONG I-10 TODAY. HIGH DISPERSIONS CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH POCKETS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS THROUGHOUT ALL THE
DISTRICTS. AS DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN, AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
WILL BE IN THE MID-30S TO MID-40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING
FROM 100-107. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
NO FLASH OR RIVERINE FLOODING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 95 73 90 70 / 30 10 0 0
PANAMA CITY 94 76 91 72 / 30 20 0 0
DOTHAN 94 73 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 95 71 91 65 / 10 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 93 71 91 68 / 20 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 92 74 90 71 / 50 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 89 78 89 74 / 10 20 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO
5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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