491
FXUS62 KTAE 160625
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
225 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
- STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD BACK TOWARDS THE RED RIVER INTO THE
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SAME TIME, SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE TRI-STATE REGION WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY
AND 20 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN DRIER
AIR WITH PWATS LESS THAN AN INCH TODAY AND THURSDAY AND SLOW TO
RECOVER FRIDAY. THEREFORE, RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
LOW, IF ANY OCCURS AT ALL. HIGHS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY
REACH THE LOW 90S WITH LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING FALLING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RELINQUISHES ITS HOLD AS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH REACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW AND
SURFACE TROUGH REACH THE SOUTHEAST US THIS WEEKEND, MOISTURE WILL
BE BACK ON THE RISE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FAVOR THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN HALF WITH EASTERLY FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
E/NE WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT TONIGHT WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT, THEN SUBSIDE AGAIN AFTER
SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD TODAY PERSISTING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET. WINDS RELAX TO
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES INTO FRIDAY THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE
EASTERLIES THIS WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH. THE STRONG SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO POCKETS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS THROUGH THE TRI-STATE
REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DRIER AIR, FEATURING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES IN THE 30-40% RANGE, WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
FOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
DRY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 91 70 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 92 72 90 72 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 90 67 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 91 67 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 91 68 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 90 71 88 70 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 89 74 87 74 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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