818
FXUS62 KTAE 170107
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
907 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
- STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH
GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND BE A
LITTLE LESS BREEZY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT WESTWARD AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS BEGINS TO MOVE WEST OVER THE FL PENINSULA
INTO THE GULF. AS THE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD, OUR MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN. BY THE WEEKEND, DEW POINTS WILL BE RETURNING
TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S, AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR OUR FL COUNTIES,
BEGINNING SATURDAY, AND CONTINUE WITH DAILY CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THIS TERM WILL BE IN THE
LOW 90S, WITH MID-90S POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE AL
WIREGRASS REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S, THEN RETURN TO THE LOW-MID 70S BY THE END OF THE TERM.
LONG TERM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. WINDS FRESHEN
AGAIN BY MID-THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 TO
20 KNOTS EXPECTED THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS TAKE HOLD TODAY PERSISTING
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL 7 FT SEAS IN OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS RELAX TO
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES HEADING INTO FRIDAY, THEN LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLIES THIS WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH.
THE BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE POCKETS OF THE
HIGH DISPERSIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. MINRH
VALUES WILL RANGE IN AROUND 30-40% THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY WITH FAIR TO MODERATE DISPERSIONS AND LIGHTER
TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS RETURNS
THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY FOR OUR FLORIDA DISTRICTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND HOWEVER, THERE ARE NO FLASH OR
RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 91 71 90 69 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 92 73 90 72 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 90 68 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 91 67 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 91 69 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 90 72 90 70 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 90 75 89 74 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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