807
FXUS62 KTAE 170514
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
114 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
- STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH
GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND BE A
LITTLE LESS BREEZY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT WESTWARD AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS BEGINS TO MOVE WEST OVER THE FL PENINSULA
INTO THE GULF. AS THE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD, OUR MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN. BY THE WEEKEND, DEW POINTS WILL BE RETURNING
TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S, AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR OUR FL COUNTIES,
BEGINNING SATURDAY, AND CONTINUE WITH DAILY CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THIS TERM WILL BE IN THE
LOW 90S, WITH MID-90S POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE AL
WIREGRASS REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S, THEN RETURN TO THE LOW-MID 70S BY THE END OF THE TERM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A DEVELOPING STRATUS DECK FROM ROUGHLY GNV TO SSI IS MOVING
WESTWARD, AND MAY IMPACT VLD AND TLH IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS WITH
MVFR CIGS. THIS WOULD LAST FOR ABOUT 4-5 HOURS BEFORE MIXING OUT.
OTHERWISE, E/NE WINDS BECOME GUSTY AGAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS TAKE HOLD TODAY PERSISTING
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL 7 FT SEAS IN OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS RELAX TO
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES HEADING INTO FRIDAY, THEN LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLIES THIS WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH.
THE BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE POCKETS OF THE
HIGH DISPERSIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. MINRH
VALUES WILL RANGE IN AROUND 30-40% THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY WITH FAIR TO MODERATE DISPERSIONS AND LIGHTER
TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS RETURNS
THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY FOR OUR FLORIDA DISTRICTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND HOWEVER, THERE ARE NO FLASH OR
RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 90 69 93 72 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 90 72 92 75 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 90 67 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 90 67 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 91 68 93 70 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 90 70 91 71 / 0 0 10 0
APALACHICOLA 89 74 88 76 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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