789
FXUS62 KTAE 171031
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
631 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
- STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL CONTINUE RETROGRADING WESTWARD
AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND MOVES WESTWARD TOWARDS
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. PWATS THIS MORNING ARE PROGGED ON THE ORDER
OF 0.8 INCHES WHICH IS IN THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PWATS WILL ESSENTIALLY BE AT ITS MINIMA THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL
MOISTENING INTO THE WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
REMAINS FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY WITH DRY AND BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH CRUISE ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL REACH THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
SHIFTING MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY OPENING THE DOOR FOR
BETTER MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. PWATS REACH BACK TO 1.8-2
INCHES THIS WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS COMPARED TO THE DRY LAST FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES FAVOR SOUTH
OF I-10 AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF THE AREA WILL AT LEAST HAVE SOME RAIN CHANCES. MODELS
DEPICT THE UPPER LOW WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND BECOMING
ABSORBED IN THE FLOW TOWARDS MID WEEK NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MODELS AT
THAT RANGE HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON THE EVENTUAL UPPER PATTERN
AND SUBSEQUENT SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTCOME.
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 2 MORNINGS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS PERIOD. THE RETREATING UPPER HIGH WON'T BE AS QUICK TO
RELINQUISH ITS HOLD SO A FEW MID 90S MAKE A STAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALABAMA SOUTH TO THE PANHANDLE COAST.
THEREAFTER, GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
LOSS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THE ADDITION OF MORE MOISTURE, CLOUDS,
AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW
TO MID LEVEL STRATUS STRETCHES FROM VLD TO FPY, MOVING WEST. SOME
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
LIGHT E/NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET. WINDS RELAX TO MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLIES HEADING INTO FRIDAY, THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE
EASTERLIES THIS WEEKEND WHILE SEAS FALL TO 1 TO 3 FEET. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH DISPERSIONS IS ON TAP TODAY WHILE NORTHEASTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 15-20 MPH. WINDS START TO RELAX
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH GOOD DISPERSIONS EXPECTED. THE DRY
AIR CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THUS NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. THEREAFTER, MOISTURE INCREASES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKE A RETURN BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S TO MID
40% RANGE THEN INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY, PERHAPS MID 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND HOWEVER, THERE ARE NO FLASH OR
RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 90 69 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 90 72 92 74 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 90 67 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 90 67 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 90 68 93 70 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 89 70 90 71 / 0 0 10 0
APALACHICOLA 87 74 87 75 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR GMZ751-752-755-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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