639
FXUS62 KTAE 180523
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
123 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS AND LOCAL BEACHES
INTO TONIGHT.
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY REACHING
THE MID 90S IN SOME INLAND AREAS.
- MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND,
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. KEY MESSAGES WERE REFRESHED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. REMAINS DOMINATED
BY A STOUT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH, WHICH IS
SLOWLY RETROGRADING WESTWARD. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. THIS SETUP CONTINUES TO FUNNEL DRY, BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, MAINTAINING UNSEASONABLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 0.8 INCHES, IN THE 10TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE DRY PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL RETURN, WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
1.4-1.7 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE.
ON SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO CRUISE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL SHIFT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO A
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, OPENING THE DOOR FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (20-40%) OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION, FAVORING AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 AND THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING
MOISTURE AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE
BROADER FLOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE LINGERING AROUND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO DAILY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT INCREASE OUT OF THE NE IN THE 5-9-KT RANGE. THE AFTN
SEABREEZE PROMPTS A MORE EASTERLY WIND SHIFT AT ECP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WINDS RELAX TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES HEADING INTO FRIDAY, THEN
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES THIS WEEKEND WHILE SEAS FALL TO 1 TO
3 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WINDS START TO RELAX FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH GOOD
DISPERSIONS EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND THUS NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE INCREASES AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKE A RETURN
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
FALL TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40% RANGE THEN INCREASE FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY,
PERHAPS MID 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND HOWEVER, THERE ARE NO FLASH OR
RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 95 73 92 / 0 20 10 50
PANAMA CITY 74 94 75 91 / 0 30 10 50
DOTHAN 71 96 72 93 / 0 30 10 20
ALBANY 71 95 72 92 / 10 20 20 20
VALDOSTA 70 93 71 91 / 0 10 10 40
CROSS CITY 70 91 72 90 / 0 40 0 70
APALACHICOLA 75 89 75 87 / 0 20 10 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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