212
FXUS62 KTAE 181731
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
131 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT LOCAL BEACHES TODAY.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID 90S IN SOME INLAND AREAS WITH HEAT
INDICES 98-106F.
- MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND,
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
THE UPPER HIGH, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE ARKLATEX AND KEEPING
SUBSIDENCE STRUNG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US, WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST
AND LOOSEN ITS GRIP AS AN UPPER LOW REACHES THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
TODAY. THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN TODAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TO OUR NORTH AND THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF SATURDAY. PWATS BEGIN
TODAY AROUND 1.3-1.4 INCHES INCREASING TO 1.7-2 INCHES THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN WILL BE HARD TO COME BY TODAY BUT BEGINNING
SATURDAY, THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW FEEDS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN, AFTER 00Z SATURDAY PER AREA TIME HEIGHTS, MOISTENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY. RAIN
CHANCES AND SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE
HEADING THOUGH THE WEEKEND, GENERALLY FAVORING ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS AND THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND FLORIDA BIG BEND. MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.
HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WHILE
DEWPOINTS CREEP UP THROUGH THE MID 60S TODAY TO UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES SATURDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON READINGS OF 98-106 FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATE A A DEGREE OR TWO BEYOND
SATURDAY AS MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST.
THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND BECOMES
ABSORBED IN THE FLOW TOWARDS MIDWEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER
RIDGING FROM THE WEST BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL ACT TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING A LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN
THIS WEEKEND INTO MIDWEEK WHILE SEAS FALL TO 1-2 FEET BEGINNING
SATURDAY. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BECOME ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON
AS THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL BEGINNING LATER THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY WITH SPEEDS NOT AS HIGH AS THE LAST
FEW DAYS. IT IS A CONTINUED DRY FLOW WITH LITTLE, IF ANY, CHANCES
FOR RAIN TODAY. MIN RHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID-30S NORTH
OF THE COAST TO MID-40S AT THE COAST. DISPERSIONS WILL BE GOOD,
PERHAPS MARGINALLY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INTO THIS WEEKEND AND WITH THAT AN INCREASE
IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING
IN COVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE, THERE ARE NO FLASH OR RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 94 72 92 / 0 30 10 60
PANAMA CITY 75 93 75 91 / 0 20 10 70
DOTHAN 71 95 71 92 / 0 30 20 30
ALBANY 71 94 71 92 / 10 30 20 50
VALDOSTA 71 93 70 91 / 0 30 10 50
CROSS CITY 70 91 70 90 / 0 40 10 70
APALACHICOLA 75 88 75 87 / 0 20 20 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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