287
FXUS62 KTAE 190544
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
144 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID-90S IN SOME INLAND AREAS WITH HEAT
INDICES RANGING FROM 98-106F.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL, IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE FL
PENINSULA IS MODELED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD BY MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE
TO A TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN
DRIVER OF OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN PARTICULAR,
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH
INCREASING PWATS AND CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZING MAINLY WITHIN THE
SEA BREEZE ZONE, ALTHOUGH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT MAY SEND SOME
ACTIVITY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE APPROACHING 1K J/KG. IN
ADDITION TO LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID-90S IN SOME INLAND
AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 98-106F. AS THE MID-LEVEL
LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK, PRECIP CHANCES
GRADUALLY DECREASE, AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE PROB30S ARE MAINTAINED UNTIL 0Z SUN, SANS ECP.
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET, SO HAVE VCSH TO
ACCT. LIGHT TO VRB WINDS ARE FCST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING EACH DAY WITHIN THE
SEA BREEZE ZONE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A CUT-OFF AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
NORTHEAST TRANSPORT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH ERRATIC/GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN
CONCERNS. GREATEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FL COUNTIES.
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH WILL ALSO INCREASE TO THE MID-40S TO MID-50S
BY SUNDAY. DISPERSION IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE FL COUNTIES, THEN DECREASE BY
MIDWEEK. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING
WITHIN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE, THE PROBABILITY OF FLASH FLOODING
IS LOW AND THERE ARE NO RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 73 93 72 91 / 20 60 10 50
PANAMA CITY 75 92 75 91 / 10 70 10 50
DOTHAN 72 93 71 92 / 20 60 30 40
ALBANY 72 93 71 92 / 20 30 30 30
VALDOSTA 72 92 71 91 / 20 50 10 50
CROSS CITY 71 90 72 90 / 10 60 10 70
APALACHICOLA 75 87 75 87 / 20 60 30 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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