981
FXUS62 KTAE 191417
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1017 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID-90S IN SOME INLAND AREAS WITH HEAT
INDICES RANGING FROM 98-106F.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL, IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, NO UPDATES THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND BEING ABSORBED IN THE MEAN
FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ALSO IS MOVING WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE RED RIVER WITH SUBSIDENCE LOSING ITS GRIP AND THE
COLUMN GRADUALLY MOISTENING. SATELLITE DERIVED PWATS THIS EVENING
ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1.3-1.5 INCHES, A STEADY INCREASE IN MOISTURE
SINCE YESTERDAY. ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND UPSTREAM
INTO THE CAROLINAS, PWATS OF 1.8-2 INCHES WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS INCREASING MOISTURE
ARRIVES, EXPECT AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. SATURDAY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF 20-40%
CHANCE WHILE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AT 40-70% ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE SEABREEZE FRONT
AND RESULTANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND,
LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND SMALL HAIL. BEYOND
TUESDAY, RAIN CHANCES DECLINE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY AND
RIDGING FROM THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST. OTHERWISE,
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID-90S IN SOME INLAND AREAS WITH HEAT
INDICES RANGING FROM 98-106F.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE PROB30S ARE MAINTAINED UNTIL 0Z SUN, SANS ECP.
CONVECTIVE ONSET TIMING WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST
HI-RES MODEL TRENDS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET,
SO HAVE VCSH TO ACCT. LIGHT TO VRB WINDS ARE FCST. PATCHY FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD ABY/VLD AFTER 6Z WITH DHN
RIGHT ON THE FRINGE. INTRO'D MVFR-IFR CONDS TO ACCT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. WITHIN THE SEABREEZE ZONE, MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING BEFORE
SWITCHING OFFSHORE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS INCREASE TO
MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE MID-SOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
MOISTURE RETURNS IN EARNEST BEGINNING TODAY WITH NORTHEAST TRANSPORT
WINDS AND INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH MONDAY. STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
ERRATIC/GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. GREATEST COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FL COUNTIES. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO THE MID-40S TO MID-50S BY SUNDAY. DISPERSION IS EXPECTED
TO BE FAIR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE FL COUNTIES, THEN DECREASE BY
MIDWEEK. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING
WITHIN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE, THE PROBABILITY OF FLASH FLOODING
IS LOW AND THERE ARE NO RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 94 73 92 72 / 30 20 60 20
PANAMA CITY 94 76 91 75 / 20 20 70 20
DOTHAN 96 72 93 71 / 30 20 40 20
ALBANY 95 72 93 71 / 20 20 30 10
VALDOSTA 93 71 92 70 / 40 20 40 10
CROSS CITY 91 71 91 71 / 40 10 50 10
APALACHICOLA 88 75 87 75 / 20 30 50 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...LF
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