829
FXUS62 KTAE 192358
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
758 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS INLAND AREAS, WITH
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 96-104F.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE FLORIDA COUNTIES,
AND CONTINUE MONDAY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE THE RAIN/STORM
CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE
BULK OF THE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE, A
FEW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF GULF, CALHOUN (FL), AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES ALONG WITH JEFFERSON COUNTY. THESE SHOULD FIZZLE
OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TOWARDS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
EASTERN GEORGIA, NEAR I-16, THAT ARE HEADING SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT, HAVE INCREASED SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN
GEORGIA COUNTIES ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTHWEST
THEY MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA, THOUGH, SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THOSE. FORTUNATELY, WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING
NOW THAT THE SUN HAS GONE DOWN, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS
IS LESSENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SE ALABAMA THANKS TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIR.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE FL
PENINSULA IS MODELED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD BY TUESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, WHICH IS ABOUT A DAY FASTER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ON MONDAY. IN PARTICULAR, CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONG STORMS TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DIFFUSE CONVERGENCE IS SETTING UP
NEAR THE TLH-VLD CORRIDOR, WHERE SB CAPE IS MODELED TO MAXIMIZE IN
3-4K J/KG RANGE, WHILE PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR WILL
BE AIDED BY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ALOFT, AS THE SEA BREEZE IS PINNED
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO NE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW, WITH ADDT'L
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO SE AL AND POSSIBLY FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERTED-V/CARET PROFILES W/
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE AROUND 800 J/KG. SO
IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AND
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE WITH THE TALLER
CORES. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. TONIGHT, PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FL NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE AUCILLA
RIVER, SOUTHWEST GA TO THE EAST OF THE FLINT RIVER, AND FROM THE
CHATAHOOCHEE RIVER VALLEY OF AL/GA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AL.
IT LOOKS LIKE "RINSE AND REPEAT" FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN TERMS
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN IN PLACE, ALTHOUGH CAMS
SHIFT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY INTO THE FL COUNTIES, WHICH WOULD BE
SUPPORTED BY GREATER INLAND SEA BREEZE PENETRATION. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE, WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE REGION
ABOUT A DAY FASTER, PRECIP CHANCES HAVE COME DOWN TUESDAY WHERE
THEY'RE FOCUSED TOWARD THE SUWANEE VALLEY, AND WEDNESDAY BEGINS
A MUCH DRIER FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S
ACROSS INLAND AREAS, WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 96-104F. A
GRADUALLY COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WORKS IN FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW IS RACING AHEAD OF THE
STORMS AND WILL IMPACT KECP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE
ELECTED TO LEAVE TSRA OUT OF KECP'S TAF AT THIS TIME, BUT WE'LL
CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS, SO AN AMENDMENT OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE
ARE MOVING WEST, SO INCLUDED SOME VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THOSE.
THERE ARE A FEW INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR IT TO WEAKEN
BEFORE IMPACTING ANY OF THE TERMINALS, MOST NOTABLY KVLD, KABY,
AND KTLH, SO HAVE ELECTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
A BIT OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KVLD AND KABY
TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN
SUNDAY WITH PROB30S AT ALL TAF SITES HIGHLIGHTING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THAT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZES EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE WATERS. WITHIN THE
SEABREEZE ZONE, MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING OFFSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A CUT-OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
NORTHEAST TRANSPORT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING
IN A SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. THROUGH
MONDAY, THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN WITH MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH INCREASING TO THE MID-40S TO MID-50S. THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
MONDAY, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY IN THE FL COUNTIES.
ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS, IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING, ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS. SOME POCKETS OF LOW DISPERSION MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GA AND SOUTHEAST AL.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE FL COUNTIES, THEN DECREASE BY
MIDWEEK. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING
WITHIN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE, THE PROBABILITY OF FLASH FLOODING
IS LOW AND THERE ARE NO RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 73 92 73 92 / 40 50 30 40
PANAMA CITY 75 91 74 91 / 20 50 20 60
DOTHAN 71 93 71 93 / 30 50 30 30
ALBANY 72 93 72 93 / 20 30 20 20
VALDOSTA 72 92 72 92 / 30 30 10 30
CROSS CITY 71 90 72 90 / 20 50 20 60
APALACHICOLA 75 87 74 87 / 20 60 30 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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