815
FXUS62 KTAE 201728
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
128 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS INLAND AREAS, WITH
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 96-104F.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE FLORIDA
COUNTIES, AND CONTINUE MONDAY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL,
IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
SHOWERS HAVE GOTTEN AN EARLY START ON LAND WITH JUST ENOUGH LIFT
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED, BUT MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. EXPECT THESE
TON CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THEN, WE'LL AWAIT THE DAYTIME HEATING TO KICK THINGS OFF ON
THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE WERE TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST AL, AND FAR SOUTHWEST GA AND NUDGE HIGHS OUT
WEST DOWN BY A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SPIN OF AN UPPER LOW IN THE
EAST GULF, NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW AND MOISTURE
FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. FURTHER WEST, DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS EAST TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. SURFACE RIDGING
TO THE NORTH IS KEEPING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
WHILE SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA ARE PUSHING TO THE
SOUTHWEST, AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER, WILL REACH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS GENERAL WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE FLOW LATER
MONDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY WILL BEGIN IN THE MID AFTERNOON
AND GENERALLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE FLORIDA COUNTIES WHERE THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RESIDE AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEABREEZE.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY OVER SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
EAST COAST SEABREEZE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO ARRIVE ALONG THE I75
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN BIG BEND LATER IN THE AFTERNOONS. MUCH LIKE
TODAY, STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HIGHS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S, AND WITH GOOD
MIXING EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THIS WILL KEEP HEAT
INDICES RELATIVELY CHECKED INTO THE 96-102F RANGE.
THE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW
DEPARTS, HOWEVER, TROUGHING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DIGS SOUTH
WHILE STRENGTHENING AND SHUNTS THE RIDGE BACK WEST. MEANWHILE,
MODELS DEPICT A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MIDWEEK (TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO) WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK DOWN THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS NEXT
WEEKEND. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS BUILD BACK IN ON THE SOUTHSIDE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH HIGHS MODERATING DOWN TOWARDS THE MID 80S
THIS TIME NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
SHRA/TSRA RIGHT NOW IS MOSTLY FOCUSED EAST OF ECP AND SOUTH OF
TLH. MAINTAINED PROB30S FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT ALL THE
SITES AS ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT AT TLH, ABY, AND VLD. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT VLD
WHERE MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
E/NE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE WATERS. WITHIN THE SEABREEZE
ZONE, MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING OFFSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
WELL. A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS LATER
THIS WEEK. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH CONTINUING NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH
THE BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEABREEZE. ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS, IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING, ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. AFTERNOON MINRHS WILL FALL INTO THE MID-40S TO
MID-50S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAT INDICES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
BE BETWEEN 96-104F DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW DISPERSIONS TODAY
WILL BE LOCATED FROM I-75 SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE FL COUNTIES, THEN DECREASE BY MIDWEEK. WHILE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING WITHIN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE, THE PROBABILITY OF FLASH FLOODING IS LOW AND THERE
ARE NO RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 91 73 92 72 / 50 20 40 20
PANAMA CITY 90 74 91 75 / 50 20 40 10
DOTHAN 92 71 93 71 / 40 30 20 20
ALBANY 92 72 92 71 / 40 10 20 30
VALDOSTA 90 71 92 71 / 50 20 30 10
CROSS CITY 90 72 90 72 / 60 30 60 10
APALACHICOLA 88 75 87 75 / 60 20 30 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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