223
FXUS62 KTAE 202039
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
439 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TOMORROW, MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL, IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE SPINNING,
GRADUALLY MOVING WEST THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO, PROVIDING THE
REGION WITH ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER.
ON TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PULL
THIS UPPER LOW NORTHEAST AND AWAY IT GOES, TAKING RAIN CHANCES WITH
IT. INCREASINGLY DRIER NORTHEAST AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES NEAR OR BELOW 10%.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HIGHS WILL LOOK TO BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, DROPPING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
SHRA/TSRA RIGHT NOW IS MOSTLY FOCUSED EAST OF ECP AND SOUTH OF
TLH. MAINTAINED PROB30S FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT ALL THE
SITES AS ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT AT TLH, ABY, AND VLD. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT VLD
WHERE MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
E/NE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST BREEZES EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE WATERS. WITHIN THE
SEABREEZE ZONE, MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING OFFSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS WELL. A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF
WATERS LATER THIS WEEK. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH CONTINUING NORTHEAST
TRANSPORT WINDS INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH
THE BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEABREEZE. ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS, IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING, ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. AFTERNOON MINRHS WILL FALL INTO THE MID-40S TO
MID-50S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAT INDICES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
BE BETWEEN 96-104F DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOW DISPERSIONS TODAY WILL BE LOCATED FROM I-75 SOUTH INTO THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK
FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
COULD BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY DOWNPOURS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO
RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 72 92 72 93 / 10 20 10 10
PANAMA CITY 75 91 74 91 / 20 30 10 20
DOTHAN 71 93 71 94 / 10 10 10 10
ALBANY 71 93 71 93 / 0 10 10 10
VALDOSTA 72 91 71 92 / 10 20 20 10
CROSS CITY 72 90 72 90 / 30 50 10 50
APALACHICOLA 74 87 74 87 / 30 40 30 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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