065
FXUS62 KTAE 051731
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
131 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
.KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. IF
YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS, TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN!
- THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF; IT HAS A HIGH (70%) CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TONIGHT)
MORE RAIN AND INTERMITTENT TROPICAL DOWNPOURS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE AS
H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY CRAWLS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST, LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG AN INCOMING COLD FRONT LATER
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL GET SQUEEZED OUT FROM BOTH THE SURFACE LOW
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE COLD FRONT,
PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT RAINS HAVE PRIMED PORTIONS
OF THE FLOOD WATCH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HAS PRIMED THE REGION
MORE SO THAN THE REST OF THE AREA.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND OFF AND ON RAIN WILL LEAD TO HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH A FEW LOWER
80S SPRINKLED IN FOR AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO SEE A BIT OF SUNSHINE.
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES JUST FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE GULF. NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PUSH
COOLER AIR OVER MOST OF THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO WARM
OUT OF THE 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT
AND A 1020+MB HIGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
REGION NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE 80S UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE STALLED
FRONT LATER IN THE WORK WEEK. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS TICKED
UP IN POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, WHICH IS WHY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) HAS A MEDIUM (40%) CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. IT REMAINS WAY TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WHAT, IF ANY, IMPACTS IT’LL HAVE ON THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WE’LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION OVER THE COMING DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, A DEVELOPING H5 LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH THE STALLED FRONT NORTH BY NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH A RETURN OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
RA CONTINUES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH CONTINUED WAVES OF SHRA, GRADUALLY
ENDING FOR DHN AND ABY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AS THE COLD
FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, CAUSING WINDS TO TURN MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THANKS TO THE STALLED FRONT NEARBY.
FIRE WEATHER
LITTLE TO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST TODAY OTHER THAN
POCKETS OF LOW DISPERSIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE
REGION. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO ARRIVE TUESDAY ALONG WITH
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES OF 2”+ PER
HOUR, WITH POOR DRAINAGE OR URBANIZED AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING.
DESPITE DRIER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, SOME RIVERS COULD REACH ACTION
STAGE AND SOME SMALLER RIVER STREAMS COULD SEE MINOR FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY BASINS WHERE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES OCCUR.
MOST AT RISK INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE SHOAL, OCHLOCKONEE, ST. MARKS,
WITHLACOOCHEE, AUCILLA, AND CHIPOLA RIVERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 78 68 76 66 / 90 70 70 30
PANAMA CITY 79 68 78 66 / 90 40 50 10
DOTHAN 77 65 78 62 / 90 20 30 10
ALBANY 76 65 78 62 / 90 20 30 10
VALDOSTA 77 66 76 64 / 100 70 70 40
CROSS CITY 81 70 77 67 / 90 80 90 60
APALACHICOLA 79 70 77 69 / 100 60 80 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ007>019-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ122>131-142>148-
155>161.
AL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ068-069.
GM...NONE.
AVIATION...CAMP
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