389
FXUS62 KTAE 052000
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
400 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 331 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
- A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF HAS A HIGH (80 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING MIDWEEK AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK, THERE IS AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK. KEEP TABS ON THIS SYSTEM.
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS,
TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN!
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING GREATER THAN 3 FEET WILL BE HAZARDOUS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING, AFTER
WHICH, THE FLOODING RAIN THREAT SHOULD DECREASE. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. BY TUESDAY, THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST FL BIG BEND.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
THE GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING A MUCH DRIER FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THE ULTIMATE LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRONT
WILL GREATLY DICTATE WHETHER WE CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN MUCH OF THE
WEEK, WITH THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SOUTHEAST FL BIG BEND BEING MOST
AT RISK. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY TO MID OCTOBER.
LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF HAS A
HIGH (80 PERCENT) CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING MIDWEEK AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF THE
TRACK, THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
THIS WEEK. KEEP TABS ON THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
RA CONTINUES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH CONTINUED WAVES OF SHRA, GRADUALLY
ENDING FOR DHN AND ABY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZES BECOME FRESH TO STRONG
TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO GREATER
THAN 3 FEET JUST OFFSHORE. AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS,
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY JUST OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WITH WATERSPOUTS
POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
MUCH OF THE WETTING RAIN ON TUESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE FL COUNTIES AND
ON WEDNESDAY CLOSER TO THE FORGOTTEN AND NATURE COASTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FL BIG BEND. TRANSPORT WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BECOME BRISK
OUT OF THE EAST AND CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
WILL LEAD TO POCKETS OF LOW DISPERSION INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE FL
BIG BEND. ON WEDNESDAY, A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO FILTER IN OUTSIDE
OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION, AS AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RH VALUES DIP INTO THE 50S.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBANIZED AREAS ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. SOME RIVERS
COULD REACH ACTION STAGE AND SOME SMALLER RIVER STREAMS COULD SEE
MINOR FLOODING. LOOKING AHEAD, THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK, WITH MUCH OF
THE FLORIDA COUNTIES ARE ALREADY OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 68 76 66 82 / 70 70 30 10
PANAMA CITY 68 78 66 82 / 40 50 10 10
DOTHAN 65 78 62 81 / 20 30 10 0
ALBANY 65 78 62 81 / 20 30 10 0
VALDOSTA 66 76 64 82 / 70 70 40 20
CROSS CITY 70 77 67 81 / 80 90 60 40
APALACHICOLA 70 77 69 80 / 60 80 40 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ007>019-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-326-426.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ122>131-142>148-
155>161.
AL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ068-069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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