812
FXUS62 KTAE 061754
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
154 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF HAS A HIGH (90%)
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK, THERE IS AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK. BE SURE TO CHECK
BACK OFTEN FOR THE LATEST FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING GREATER THAN 3 FEET WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO
BOATERS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO STALL IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TODAY.
HOWEVER, IT'LL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO MAINTAIN OFF AND ON
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FLORIDA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA, TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL
INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS HELPS
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 0.5 TO 2 INCHES ARE IN THE FORECAST
TODAY, WITH THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM
MEXICO BEACH EASTWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL FRANKLIN COUNTY WHERE
THEY'VE HAD 6 TO 11 INCHES OF RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG
BEND TONIGHT AS LOWS DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS GEORGIA
AND ALABAMA AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN FLORIDA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
DRIER WEATHER TAKES OVER WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FUNNELS DRIER IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HANG OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S BOTH AFTERNOONS UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS MUCH OF ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS FLORIDA BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT GETS MURKY THANKS TO A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. AS OF 2 AM EDT/1 AM CDT, THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) HAS A HIGH (80%) CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
LIFTS NORTH AND EAST LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS A TON OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT HASN'T FULLY
CONSOLIDATED YET. BE SURE TO CHECK BACK OFTEN FOR THE LATEST
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
OF HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RIGHT/MIST ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE AT ECP/TLH/VLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWER
CHANCES REDUCE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH. HOWEVER,
IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF ECP/TLH/VLD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT DHN/ABY OVERNIGHT BUT DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVERNIGHT MIGHT LIMIT THE EXTENT OF ANY RESTRICTIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME AS LOW STRATUS IS TYPICALLY SLOW TO LIFT IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD TO GREATER THAN 3
FEET TODAY AND REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 6 FEET THE REST OF THE WEEK. A
STALLED FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK, ESPECIALLY JUST OFFSHORE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
A COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF TODAY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY
IN FLORIDA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP
TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A DRIER AIR MASS PUSHING INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY DROP TO
40 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG
BEND WHERE MINRH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN GREATER THAN 70%.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 0.5 TO 2 INCHES ARE IN THE FORECAST
TODAY, WITH THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM
MEXICO BEACH EASTWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL FRANKLIN COUNTY WHERE
THEY'VE HAD 6 TO 11 INCHES OF RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS. DRIER WEATHER
PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WE'RE ALSO MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF THAT COULD BRING MORE
RAIN THIS WEEKEND.
WHILE RISES ON AREA RIVERS ARE NOTED, THE DRIER ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS HAVE HELPED BELAY THE RIVER FLOOD THREAT FOR MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THEM OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS
THE RECENT RAINS DRAIN TOWARDS THE GULF.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 66 82 65 82 / 20 10 10 30
PANAMA CITY 67 82 67 82 / 10 10 10 20
DOTHAN 63 81 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 64 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 10
VALDOSTA 65 82 63 82 / 20 10 0 10
CROSS CITY 68 81 68 80 / 60 50 40 60
APALACHICOLA 69 80 69 80 / 40 40 40 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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