250
FXUS62 KTAE 070040
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
840 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 757 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING LATE THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. BE SURE TO CHECK BACK
OFTEN FOR THE LATEST FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING GREATER THAN 3 FEET WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO
BOATERS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OVER INTO CENTRAL FL WITH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST OFF
THE SURFACE IS HELPING THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM UP OVER
THE SHALLOW STABLE SURFACE LAYER, PROVIDING A BLANKET OF CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH PASSING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HEAVIER RAIN AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE WATERS BUT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL LARGELY CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
ALL OF THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED TERM TURNS TOWARDS THE
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO LOOK
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT OVER TOWARDS THE YUCATAN BEFORE TURNING
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD AND INCREASING IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE
EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SOMETIME FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
THE GREATEST THREATS GENERALLY WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT
RIVERS. WITH THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM, GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS FORECAST WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE. IF REALIZED, THESE TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
SOGGY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT
WIND, SURGE, OR TORNADO IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE (IF ANY) TO
OUR LOCAL AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
MVFR TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE,
ESPECIALLY AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF ECP/TLH/VLD. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT DHN/ABY OVERNIGHT BUT DRIER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT MIGHT LIMIT THE EXTENT OF ANY
RESTRICTIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME AS LOW STRATUS IS TYPICALLY SLOW TO LIFT IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
GREATER THAN 3 FEET TODAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. A STALLED FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY JUST OFFSHORE. EYES TURN TO A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
A COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF TODAY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN MAINLY IN FLORIDA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. BRISK NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A DRIER AIR MASS
NUDGING INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY DROP TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY
OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND WHERE MINRH WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN GREATER THAN 70%. A MUCH WETTER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE CURRENTLY
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
OF 10 TO 12 INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER THE LAST 5 DAYS. AREA RIVERS
ARE ON THE RISE, BUT VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS BEFORE THIS
RECENT EVENT HAS ALLOWED US TO AVOID RIVER FLOODING SO FAR.
HOWEVER, A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING 4 TO 6
INCHES OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10
INCHES POSSIBLE. AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND
FLINT RIVERS HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAVY RAINFALL RISK THAN AREAS
EAST. GIVEN THE NOW SOGGY CONDITIONS, THESE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS WOULD LIKELY CAUSE AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND
SOME INSTANCES OF RIVER FLOODING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 67 82 66 82 / 30 20 0 10
PANAMA CITY 68 82 67 82 / 20 10 0 10
DOTHAN 63 82 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 64 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 66 83 64 83 / 30 10 0 10
CROSS CITY 69 80 68 81 / 90 50 20 50
APALACHICOLA 70 80 70 80 / 60 30 20 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...MERRIFIELD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page